Solana (SOL) is changing hands near $103.56 on October 18, according to market data, after pulling back from recent highs close to $120. The token has recovered from its mid-2026 lows but remains well below its previous peak.

That leaves investors asking whether SOL can rebuild momentum heading into 2027. The latest weekly candle closed down about 6.88%, and buyers have struggled to hold ground near recent resistance. The longer-term outlook is split between a bullish institutional forecast and more cautious scenario models.

Standard Chartered Sticks to $400 by End of 2027

Standard Chartered expects Solana to recover to $400 by the end of 2027, according to The Block. Hitting that target would represent upside of roughly 286% from current levels and would depend on stronger institutional investment, wider blockchain adoption and an improvement in overall market sentiment.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, also projects SOL at $700 in 2028 and $2,000 by 2030. In February, the account Solana Daily flagged that Kendrick had trimmed the bank's 2026 Solana forecast to $250 from $310 following recent market weakness, even as the $2,000 target for 2030 was maintained. At current levels near $103.56, SOL trades well below even that reduced 2026 mark — a gap that shows how far the research outlook and spot prices currently sit apart. The February post stated:

🚨 Standard Chartered updates $SOL price outlook

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick trims the 2026 Solana price forecast to $250 (from $310) following recent market weakness. Despite this near-term cut, the bank still sees $SOL reaching $2,000 by 2030, highlighting… pic.twitter.com/5wOQu4Sfxx

— Solana Daily (@solana_daily), February 4, 2026, via X

The Standard Chartered forecast rests partly on Solana expanding beyond memecoin trading into stablecoin payments and micropayments. VanEck's 2023 research, for comparison, outlined a 2030 base case of $335 and a bullish case of $3,211.

Scenario Ranges for 2027

In a bullish scenario, SOL would trade between $250 and $400 in 2027, which would require stronger ETF inflows, steady adoption and a recovery above $200.

The base scenario places SOL between $130 and $220, supported by improving DeFi activity and steadier markets. Even then, Solana would continue to face competition from Ethereum and other networks for the same stablecoin and payments activity that underpins the more optimistic targets.

The bearish scenario sees SOL at $60 to $90, driven by institutional outflows, weaker macroeconomic conditions or lower network activity.

What the Weekly Chart Shows

Solana's weekly TradingView chart shows a recovery from the $60–$70 region, followed by a rally toward $120 before sellers regained control. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.16, above the neutral 50 level, and the MACD line sits above its signal line. The histogram remains small, so momentum is developing but has not yet strengthened.

Support sits at $100, followed by the $80–$90 consolidation area. Resistance is at $115–$120, with $150 coming into view if SOL breaks above the $120–$130 zone. The level to watch next is the weekly close against $100, since a close below it could weaken the recovery outlook.

On-Chain Usage Holds Up Despite Softer Prices

DefiLlama data shows Solana holds about $5.9 billion in decentralized finance total value locked. The network also carries roughly $15.6 billion in stablecoin market capitalization, and seven-day decentralized exchange trading volume is above $12 billion.

The official Solana account highlighted the network's stablecoin throughput in a post on October 18:

JUST IN: Solana is #1 for stablecoin transfers. 557M in September, up 33% from August. 18.6M transfers a day. pic.twitter.com/kCfslx58e9

— Solana (@solana), October 18, 2026, via X

Those figures point to continued network use despite weaker token prices, although rising activity does not automatically lift SOL's valuation. That usage base is nonetheless the part of the picture most relevant to the Standard Chartered thesis, which explicitly depends on Solana turning stablecoin and micropayment activity into a core network role beyond memecoin trading.

Fund Flows Remain Negative

Crypto ETF data showed about $12.7 million in net outflows from Solana funds on October 16, extending a recent run of withdrawals. Flow direction is one of the swing factors separating the 2027 scenarios: the bullish case calls for stronger ETF inflows, while the bearish case cites institutional outflows, making the current withdrawal streak the near-term data point most at odds with the institutional demand assumed in the $400 target. SOL last traded near $103.56.

Source: CoinCentral