Democratic strategists in Pennsylvania are increasingly confident that incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro will secure a second term in the 2026 midterms, and the size of his polling lead is now causing alarm among Republicans well beyond the governor's race itself.

Recent surveys show State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, Shapiro's Republican challenger, trailing the moderate Democratic governor by 25 percentage points (Franklin & Marshall), 26 points (the Bravo Group) or 17 points (New York Times/Siena College). And according to Washington Post reporter Dan Merica, Pennsylvania Republicans "are starting to worry that" Garrity's sinking campaign "is directly affecting four of the nation's most competitive House races."

"Pennsylvania is the definition of a battleground state," Merica writes in the Post. "Voters there have correctly picked the presidential winner since 2008. Democrats hold a narrow 200,000 edge in voter registration. And Pennsylvania races are often decided by notably thin margins. But Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro's run for reelection against Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity has been an outright romp so far. Every poll has shown Shapiro with a large lead, some approaching 30 percentage points."

The money gap is just as lopsided. Merica reports that the Democratic governor outraised Garrity by $11.5 million over the summer, bringing in $13 million compared with Garrity's $1.8 million. According to ad tracker AdImpact, Shapiro's campaign has either spent or plans to spend nearly $28 million on ads in the state — dwarfing the $750,000 Garrity has either spent or reserved.

That imbalance is why Pennsylvania Republicans, per Merica, fear Garrity's "struggling campaign could weigh down other Republicans on the ballot," including Scott Perry, Rob Bresnahan, Ryan Mackenzie and Brian Fitzpatrick, each of whom is competing in a U.S. House of Representatives race. All four are incumbents, and because House majorities in recent cycles have been decided by only a handful of seats, the results in those Pennsylvania districts could help determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress.

"Garrity is atop the ballot for all these Republicans this year," Merica reports. "So a struggling Republican campaign will require down-ballot Republicans — including Perry, Bresnahan, Mackenzie and Fitzpatrick — to find enough crossover Shapiro voters to defy the downward pressure that Garrity is putting on their campaigns."

Sam Chen, a Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist, told the Post that while Garrity has "not run a good campaign" and is "going to lose" to Shapiro, President Donald Trump — not Garrity — is the biggest problem facing "down-ballot" Republicans in the state.

"What is going to hurt the down-ballot is the president, and specifically that he is not on the ballot," Chen warned. "The president does this weird thing: When he is on the ballot, he has his own secret sauce ... When he is not on the ballot, it is like his baggage is on the ballot and his coattails are not."

Chen's concern has deep roots in recent political history: in most midterm elections since World War II, the party holding the White House has lost House seats when its standard-bearer is off the ballot.

Another GOP strategist, who spoke to the Post on condition of anonymity, offered a different theory: "Maybe Garrity's strategy is to run such an uninspiring campaign that the race is so much of an ass-kicking that Democrats don't feel the urgency to turn out on Election Day."

Shapiro has steered away from the subject in interviews, but he is being mentioned as a possible Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, and pundits argue that he needs a decisive win in 2026 to show he is capable of going the distance two years from now.

Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist J.J. Abbott told the Post, "Gov. Shapiro seems to understand the importance of showing the country that Democrats can both win and govern, which is a huge hurdle for improving the Democratic brand nationally ahead of 2028. There's no better state to do that in PA, the largest and most visible battleground state."

Both theories will be tested when Pennsylvania's ballots are counted on Election Day.