The U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote on a procedural step for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, while the Federal Reserve is preparing to announce its latest policy decision. The two events could shape near-term trading in Bitcoin, Ether and several tokens linked to the legislation’s regulatory questions.

Republicans reportedly rejected a Democratic counteroffer shortly before the vote. Bitcoin traded at $76,380 afterward, down 0.79% over one hour, while Ether stood at2,448 after falling 1.36% over the same period. Analysts put the odds of the procedural vote succeeding at about 50%.

What the Senate is voting on

The Senate is scheduled to vote at 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. Cloture requires 60 votes and would limit further debate on the motion. With 100 seats in the chamber, the threshold requires backing from at least some members of both parties.

A successful cloture vote would clear an important procedural hurdle, but it would not amount to passage of the bill. The Senate would still need to approve the motion before beginning formal consideration, debate the legislation and consider amendments. Cloture would not enact the CLARITY Act or immediately establish new rules for the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Republicans reportedly rejected the Democratic counteroffer

The prospects for a last-minute agreement weakened shortly before the vote. Bitcoin Archive reported on X, citing Politico, that Republicans had rejected a Democratic counteroffer. The post quoted a spokesperson for Sen. Cynthia Lummis as saying Democrats “haven’t budged an inch.”

BREAKING: Republicans REJECT Democrat Clarity Act counter-offer — POLITICO

“They haven’t budged an inch,” says Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ spokesperson.

— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) September 15, 2026

The counteroffer followed disagreements over ethics, stablecoin rewards and other provisions in the Republican-backed text. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Mark Warner had already said the latest ethics language remained insufficient, as described in a report on why the CLARITY ethics deal still falls short for Democrats.

The reported rejection does not determine the final result, but it leaves Republicans with less room to secure the Democratic support required to reach the 60-vote threshold.

Bitcoin fell as the rejection was reported

Markets may have already reflected much of the uncertainty surrounding the legislation. Reuters reported that investors and analysts largely expected the legislation not to become law in the foreseeable future.

Even so, Bitcoin moved lower as news of the counteroffer’s rejection circulated. According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC traded at $76,380 shortly afterward, down 0.79% over one hour. Ether stood at $2,448 after declining 1.36% during the same period.

The immediate decline indicates that the development affected short-term trading, even if market participants had anticipated continued political disagreement. The timing does not establish that the report caused the entire move. Crypto markets were also under pressure from rising Treasury yields and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase.

A more informative test will be whether selling continues after the Senate result or prices recover once the procedural uncertainty is removed. A one-hour move records the initial response, not the market’s final assessment.

Analysts expect a close vote and an uneven market response

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, put the chance of the procedural vote succeeding at around 50%, according to CoinDesk. He estimated the probability of the bill becoming law before the end of 2026 at below 20%.

The difference between those estimates is significant. Cloture could open the way for formal debate, but the Senate would still have to consider amendments and pass the legislation. Any differences with the House would also need to be resolved.

The assets that react first would not necessarily be those that benefit most from a final law. BTC and ETH can reflect broader crypto-market activity, while SOL, XRP, UNI and AAVE provide different forms of exposure to the regulatory issues addressed by the bill.

BTC and ETH provide the broadest market test

Bitcoin and Ether have the largest market capitalizations among the assets discussed here, substantial trading liquidity and access through regulated U.S. investment products. Those characteristics make them practical markets for expressing a broad view on U.S. crypto policy.

Sun said a successful vote could produce an “immediate, direct positive reaction” in BTC and ETH before traders begin focusing on assets with a closer connection to the changing regulatory framework.

Bitcoin could later lag some other tokens because its regulatory position, exchange-traded fund access and institutional infrastructure are already comparatively established, Sun and Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk.

That does not prevent BTC from responding to the vote. Its decline after the reported rejection shows that legislative headlines can influence short-term trading, even when much of the uncertainty may already be reflected in prices.

Zhang identified Ether as a potentially stronger relative beneficiary because regulatory questions remain around parts of its ecosystem. Ethereum also provides infrastructure for stablecoins, decentralized finance and tokenized assets. Those sectors could be affected by clearer rules for issuers, exchanges and software developers.

SOL and XRP could offer a more specific signal

The CLARITY Act is intended to define how authority over digital assets is divided between the SEC and the CFTC. The boundary between the two agencies has been a recurring source of legal uncertainty for digital-asset firms in the United States. The House-passed version generally gives the CFTC authority over digital-commodity transactions and establishes registration requirements for exchanges, brokers and dealers. The Senate can still amend that framework.

Clearer standards could help exchanges and financial firms determine which assets they can support, what registrations they need and which regulator would oversee a product. Sun said Solana and XRP could benefit if clearer boundaries improve institutional access, product issuance and longer-term capital inflows.

Why traders may watch Solana

Solana supports stablecoin transfers, token issuance, trading and tokenized financial products. A clearer framework could make it easier for exchanges, asset managers and issuers to assess which Solana-based products they can offer and how those products would be regulated.

The procedural vote would not classify SOL, guarantee an exchange listing or approve a SOL investment product. Outperformance against BTC and ETH would instead indicate that traders were assigning more value to Solana’s possible role in regulated on-chain markets.

Why XRP could react more sharply

XRP has been closely associated with U.S. disputes over whether and when token transactions fall under securities law Zhang said XRP could respond strongly if the legislation advances, although she believes some of the potential regulatory benefit is already reflected in its price.

A reaction in XRP would show how traders are valuing the possibility of clearer rules. It would not mean that every regulatory question affecting the asset had been resolved or that financial firms were required to use the XRP Ledger.

UNI and AAVE offer higher-risk policy exposure

Sun and Zhang also identified Uniswap’s UNI and Aave’s AAVE as higher-beta assets to watch. Higher beta means their prices could move more sharply than the broader market in either direction.

Their connection to the CLARITY Act comes from provisions affecting non-custodial software developers and decentralized protocols. If a final framework provides developers with clearer protections for publishing or operating software without taking custody of customer assets, traders could view decentralized-finance protocols as easier to operate in the United States.

UNI and AAVE could therefore react more strongly than BTC if the legislation advances. The same sensitivity would create greater downside risk if cloture fails or if the relevant protections are changed during subsequent negotiations.

The Fed may overshadow the Senate reaction

The Federal Reserve’s September meeting concludes on September 16, with its policy decision scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET. The current federal-funds target range is 3.50%-3.75%. The federal-funds rate, the overnight rate at which banks lend reserves to one another, serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the financial system.

The CME FedWatch Tool showed a probability above 90% for a quarter-point increase when checked at 14:03 UTC on September 15. Such an increase would raise the target range to 3.75%-4.00%.

FedWatch converts federal-funds futures prices into implied probabilities. Its readings represent market positioning rather than a poll of Federal Reserve officials, and they can change as futures prices move.

Because an increase is already widely expected, investors may pay more attention to the Fed’s economic projections and its language about future meetings. Guidance pointing to further tightening could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, offsetting a positive regulatory signal from the Senate.

Separating a brief spike from repricing

Zhang said a quick increase followed by fading prices would indicate a headline-driven trade. A more durable response would require demand to continue beyond the initial market reaction.

The reported rejection and Bitcoin’s immediate decline show that the Senate negotiations were not irrelevant to prices, even if much of the risk had already been anticipated. The stronger test will come after the vote: whether any asset-specific outperformance survives the initial headline and the Federal Reserve’s decision one day later.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial or investment advice. Legislative negotiations, vote schedules, market prices and futures-implied rate probabilities can change. Past or short-term price movements do not guarantee future performance.