Sberbank expects up to USD 46.4 billion in regulated crypto trading during the first year of Russia's new crypto law, with around one fifth of existing crypto activity in the country expected to migrate to licensed exchanges.

The forecast comes from SberCIB Investment Research, the analysis arm of Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, which remains majority state-controlled. The estimate ranges from 3.5 to 4 trillion RUB.

The legal framework

President Vladimir Putin signed the framework law, Federal Law 282-FZ, in early August 2026, after the State Duma and the Federation Council approved it in July. It is Russia's first comprehensive rulebook for crypto exchanges, custodians, brokers, clearing houses and mining operators. The law takes effect on 1 September 2026, although individual provisions apply only a year later. Before the reform, the Russian finance ministry estimated the country's daily crypto transaction volume at around USD 650 million.

The law builds on earlier, narrower steps: Russia's 2020 law on digital financial assets had already banned crypto as a means of payment while permitting its holding, and industrial crypto mining was brought under state regulation in 2024. The new framework extends regulation from issuance and mining to secondary trading venues and their participants.

Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman of the board at Sberbank, also looked further ahead, naming a figure of 7.5 trillion RUB (USD 87.1 billion) for 2029. Both figures refer to trading on Russian exchanges, and the 2029 mark comes close to double the first-year estimate.

Who may legally trade crypto assets in Russia

The law ties market access to formal requirements. Crypto exchanges must show minimum equity capital of 15 million RUB (around USD 185,200), enter a special register, and join a self-regulatory organization for the financial market. Only registered platforms may legally trade. In absolute terms the capital hurdle is comparatively low; the registration duty is therefore decisive, as it separates licensed platforms from previously unregulated trade.

Retail investors face a hard ceiling: they may invest at most 300,000 RUB (around USD 3,700) in cryptocurrencies per year and per intermediary. Because the limit applies per provider, holding several accounts widens the frame in practice. Qualified investors face no restriction. Both categories must pass a suitability test, and non-qualified investors can initially trade only the most liquid assets: Bitcoin, Ether and the stablecoin USDT.

The gap between the rulebook and the market's size stands out. Extrapolated, the daily volume of USD 650 million amounts to roughly 18 trillion RUB a year. SberCIB analysts consequently expect about one fifth of today's activity to migrate to licensed venues, leaving the larger part of trading outside the licensed segment.

Some vagueness remains around deadlines. Existing crypto exchanges receive a transition period until 1 March 2027 and may keep operating until then. Professional market participants such as brokers need their license by 1 July 2027, though available information leaves open which date applies to which category. Rules on the issuance and circulation of crypto assets take hold only from 1 September 2027, so the framework currently covers mainly secondary trading, and licensed and unregulated offerings will continue to exist side by side.

Sberbank's own crypto products take shape

The bank is moving beyond forecasts. By 1 December 2026 it plans to launch a crypto wallet in the Sber and SberInvestments apps, alongside a digital custody account for crypto assets. Kirill Tsarev, first deputy chairman of the board, confirmed the integration into Sberbank Online and SberInvestments. Android users will likely receive access before iOS users. The launch falls three months after the law takes effect, bringing custody of crypto assets into the app of the country's largest bank, allowing customers to hold positions without using foreign platforms.

The ambition extends to loans against crypto collateral. Once the Russian central bank agrees, the institution wants to grant loans against Bitcoin, Ether and USDT. It has already completed a pilot loan of this kind: the mining company Intelion Data posted self-mined cryptocurrency as collateral. Since mining proceeds accrue in cryptocurrency anyway, a miner gains liquidity without selling holdings. Since 2025 the bank has also sold structured bonds and digital financial assets referencing Bitcoin and Ether to qualified investors. A product chain thus emerges from custody through trading to lending.

"We prepared for this in advance and already have practical experience in handling cryptocurrencies. As soon as the law fully takes effect, we will adapt Sberbank's existing products to the new requirements and expand our offering consistently. [...]" — Anatoly Popov, Deputy Chairman of the Board, Sberbank

Without central bank approval, however, the lending business remains a declaration of intent.

VTB and T-Bank follow Sberbank into crypto trading

Sberbank is not acting alone. Crypto services from VTB and T-Bank are likewise in preparation, targeting the same customers as the market leader. Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange, the central trading venue for Russian securities, already trades futures on a Bitcoin index. Competition for new accounts therefore begins before regulated trading starts.

Sberbank holds the lead for now, having gathered operational experience with crypto investment products for qualified investors since 2025. For rivals, the December wallet launch becomes the benchmark. All providers work under the same framework of registration duty and investor limits, and the licensing deadlines will decide how quickly competitors catch up.

Crypto payments in foreign trade despite US sanctions

The legislator separates domestic and foreign trade sharply. Inside Russia, the law still bans payments with cryptocurrencies for goods and services, leaving the ruble the only permitted means of payment at home. By contrast, it allows cross-border settlement of foreign trade contracts between residents and non-residents — a channel open to exporters and importers, not domestic commerce. Moscow had already permitted cryptocurrencies in international trade in 2024 to circumvent Western sanctions; under the new law, that practice gains a firm legal framework for the first time.

The new legal situation does not change the US sanctions regime: transactions with sanctioned Russian parties still fall under Washington's rules. An EU sanctions package from April 2026 additionally bars people in the EU from dealing with Russian crypto service providers. For foreign counterparties, access to the Russian market therefore remains a legal risk. A legal framework emerges at home, but no exemption from foreign rules — and ultimately, the bank's real bet is on domestic demand.

What to watch next is largely fixed by the calendar: the law's entry into force on 1 September 2026, Sberbank's wallet and custody launch by 1 December 2026, the exchange and broker licensing deadlines in the first half of 2027, and any central bank decision on crypto-collateralized lending.