NewsCommodities & ForexSaudi Red Sea Crude Exports Down 41% Since March Peak

Saudi Red Sea Crude Exports Down 41% Since March Peak

Author: OilPrice.com·

Key Takeaways

  • Saudi Arabia redirected virtually all crude exports through its 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea at the start of the Iran war to avoid Strait of Hormuz risks.
  • Yanbu crude exports dropped from 4.07 million bpd in March to 2.39 million bpd in June, marking a 41% decline from the peak and a 66% drop from total January export levels.
  • Yemen's Houthis declared a naval blockade on the Red Sea and claimed to have struck two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late-week escalation.
  • The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world's most strategic maritime oil transit chokepoints, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
  • Disruption to the Red Sea route directly threatens crude supplies to Asia, which has long been the dominant destination for Saudi oil exports.
Saudi Red Sea Crude Exports Down 41% Since March Peak

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports from Yanbu on the Red Sea fell 41% by June from a March peak, despite the Kingdom having redirected virtually all crude shipments through its East-West pipeline to the port at the start of the Iran war, according to Wood Mackenzie vessel-tracking and cargo data cited by OilPrice.com.

The world’s largest crude exporter had rerouted shipments away from the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran-war-related risks, leaning on the 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline—originally built decades ago as a Hormuz bypass—to move crude from eastern fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Yanbu exports declined to about 2.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in June from 4.07 million bpd in March, the data showed. WoodMac’s tracking data indicated that volumes have fallen steadily from the March high even as Saudi Arabia concentrated nearly all exports through Yanbu.

By June, Yanbu loadings were around 2.39 million bpd, down 41% from the March peak and 66% below Saudi Arabia’s total export level in January, when the Kingdom shipped about 7.96 million bpd across both Gulf and Red Sea terminals. Asia has long been the dominant destination for Saudi crude, meaning disruption to the Red Sea route directly threatens the primary supply chain feeding the world’s largest oil-importing region.

“For months, the market treated Yanbu as the answer to Hormuz risk,” said Ian Solis, data analyst, Tech/Maritime-Ops for Wood Mackenzie.

“The problem is that Yanbu has its own chokepoint. If Bab al-Mandeb comes under sustained disruption from a declared Houthi naval blockade, Asia stands to lose a major crude supply artery,” Solis said.

This week, the Iran-aligned Houthis appeared to act on their pledge to target Saudi Arabia’s oil exports from the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Red Sea route has been critical for Saudi crude shipments in recent months after the Kingdom shifted exports that had previously moved from the Persian Gulf to Yanbu.

Yemen’s Houthis, allies of Iran, said late Wednesday that they had struck two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, marking the latest escalation in the Middle East war. The group said the vessels had violated the naval blockade it declared earlier this week.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, is one of the world’s most strategic maritime oil transit chokepoints, typically carrying millions of barrels per day of crude and refined products toward Europe and Asia.

Saudi Arabia’s move to diversify away from the Strait of Hormuz may now leave it dependent on another chokepoint in a war zone.

“What looked like diversification was in reality a shift from one strategic bottleneck to another,” WoodMac’s Solis said.

By Charles Kennedy for OilPrice.com.