MANILA — Weak public interest in the impeachment trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio may reflect a widespread perception among Filipinos that the Senate court is a political spectacle far removed from everyday realities, analysts said.

A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted from Sept. 21 to 27 found that about 42% of adult Filipinos were closely following Ms. Duterte's trial — a level that trails the 54% who followed the trial of former Chief Justice Renato Tereso A. Corona and the 47% who tracked the case of former President Joseph “Erap” Ejercito Estrada. The Corona trial ended in conviction by the Senate in May 2012, while the Estrada trial was cut short without a verdict after House prosecutors walked out in Jan. 2001.

“When people already distrust the impeachment court and doubt the accusations, however, following the trial can feel like a lot of effort with little reward,” Rogelio Alicor L. Panao, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman (UPD), said via e-mail. “So tuning out is not necessarily apathy. It can be a rational response to something that looks like a political spectacle.”

Public skepticism toward the court was already structural before the trial began, Mr. Panao said. Citing an Octa Research survey conducted April 20 to 24, he noted that 81% of Filipinos were either skeptical or withholding judgment on whether the senator-judges would decide the case on evidence and law rather than politics.

“If the House, the Senate, or the administration is seen as politically motivated, even a strong corruption case can be dismissed as political ammunition,” he added.

The same SWS poll showed that only 28% of Filipinos had “much trust” that the Senate would make a fair decision on whether to convict Ms. Duterte. Net belief in the four articles of impeachment against the Vice-President — as measured during the survey period and before the court allowed House prosecutors to drop the articles apart from the charge of unexplained wealth — was likewise weak, with scores ranging from -9 to -21.

Under the 1987 Constitution, a conviction in an impeachment case carries removal from office and disqualification from holding any office under the Republic — the legal consequences of the verdict the Senate court is weighing.

Jean S. Encinas-Franco, also a political science professor at UPD, said distrust of the proceedings and the allegations may be tied to the Vice-President's public narrative of being persecuted.

Mr. Panao added that Ms. Duterte's political brand — which emphasizes authenticity, toughness and an anti-elite image — has held up against corruption allegations because her supporters ask whether she is on their side, “not whether she is perfectly clean.”

The Vice-President has repeatedly denounced the impeachment as a waste of time and resources, and as part of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.'s attempts to undermine her 2028 presidential bid.

“Government should start working and stop politicking,” Ms. Duterte said in an Oct. 22 statement. “The people are impoverished, hungry and angry.”

The SWS data suggest that distrust is not uniform across society, Mr. Panao said: middle- and upper-income groups may view Ms. Duterte as a destabilizing political actor, while lower-income groups may see the trial as a distraction from governance and daily survival.

Reginald V. Tongol, spokesperson for the Senate impeachment court, said the survey results serve as motivation for the tribunal to earn the public's trust. In a statement, he said the court will treat the poll as a challenge to “demonstrate transparent, rules-based impartiality” to the skeptical and undecided segments of the public.

For Mr. Panao, procedural consistency is the first task in rebuilding trust, so the chamber must avoid visible changes that make it look like a moving target, such as the lower conviction threshold (the Constitution requires the concurrence of two-thirds of all Senate members for a conviction) and the sudden withdrawal of three of the four articles of impeachment. A plain-language summary of each session, he said, could also ease public confusion about the proceedings.

“It should publicly justify every evidentiary ruling,” he added. “It should also be visibly protective of due process for both the prosecution and the defense, because fairness that is not seen is, politically, fairness that does not count.”

Ultimately, Ms. Encinas-Franco said, building trust in the impeachment court means showing why the Vice-President potentially betrayed public trust — and what that means for Filipinos' day-to-day lives. As the trial continues on the sole surviving charge of unexplained wealth, whether the tribunal translates that commitment into the procedural consistency and visible fairness the analysts describe remains to be seen.

Source: BusinessWorld, reporting by Francessca S. Abalos — Analysts see political spectacle behind weaker interest in VP Sara's trial