Saifedean Ammous on the Bond Crisis and Bitcoin's Rise as a True Macro Asset
Key Takeaways
- •Economist Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, appears in a new Bitcoin Magazine video discussing the bond crisis and Bitcoin's rise as a true macro asset.
- •Ammous regards Bitcoin's declining volatility as the most bullish development in Bitcoin at present.
- •Bear-market drawdowns have reportedly shrunk from roughly 87% to 77%, and to about 54% in the current cycle, bringing Bitcoin closer to investability for money managers who measure peak-to-trough losses.
- •The episode ties the four-year Bitcoin cycle to the halving's periodic reduction of new supply and notes that fewer participants are using leverage at market tops, with markets potentially arbitraging these cycles away over time.
- •Other topics covered include the US carrying $40 trillion in debt as the world's reserve currency, Treasury yields at multi-decade highs, hidden Treasury rollover risk tied to stablecoins, and miners pivoting toward AI data centers.
Bitcoin Magazine has published a new video featuring economist Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, examining the bond crisis and Bitcoin's rise as a true macro asset. Ammous argues that Bitcoin's falling volatility is the most bullish development in Bitcoin right now.
According to the episode, bear-market drawdowns have shrunk from roughly 87% to 77%, and to about 54% in the current cycle — a progression that moves Bitcoin closer to an investable asset for money managers, for whom the depth of peak-to-trough losses is a standard metric in portfolio risk assessment. Ammous explains why the halving, which reduces the pace of new bitcoin issuance roughly every four years, still drives the four-year Bitcoin cycle, why fewer people are buying with leverage at the top, and how markets may eventually arbitrage these cycles away.
The episode covers the following chapters:
- 0:00 — Tether, Bitcoin & the Dollar Milkshake Theory
- 1:45 — How the US Carries $40 Trillion in Debt as the World's Reserve Currency
- 4:21 — Treasury Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs & the Bond Market Bear Case
- 7:00 — War Spending, Iran & the Collapse of Fiscal Hope
- 9:20 — Stablecoins vs Banks & the Hidden Treasury Rollover Risk
- 15:11 — The Longest Hash Rate Bear Market in Bitcoin History
- 18:47 — Why Miners Are Pivoting to AI Data Centers
- 21:31 — The Halving, Bitcoin Cycles & Shrinking Drawdowns
- 25:56 — MicroStrategy, Strive & Bitcoin Treasury Companies
- 29:07 — The Humble Peasant Theory of High Finance
The post Saifedean Ammous: The Bond Crisis & Bitcoin's Rise as a True Macro Asset first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green. The outlet's video content is also available on its YouTube channel.
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