Russia will need approximately RUB10trn ($116bn) by 2035 to transform its Arctic coastline into a fully fledged transport corridor, an investment bill of such magnitude that Moscow will likely require substantial international participation, with China standing out as the obvious candidate.

Rosatom chief executive Alexey Likhachev told Russian publication Expert that developing the so-called Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor will require RUB5trn by 2030, followed by another RUB5trn over the subsequent five years. Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear corporation, also serves as the infrastructure operator of the Northern Sea Route, making it the central institution in the corridor's build-out.

The project extends considerably beyond the Northern Sea Route itself, encompassing ports, rail links, inland waterways, logistics infrastructure, an expanded nuclear icebreaker fleet, and a much larger ice-class merchant fleet. Russia is the only country operating nuclear-powered icebreakers, a capability central to keeping the route navigable year-round.

Under its baseline scenario, Russia is targeting cargo volumes of 110m to 150m tonnes by 2035, up from around 37m tonnes currently. Under more bullish assumptions, Moscow believes volumes could reach 200m tonnes by 2040. Even at those levels, Arctic traffic would remain a fraction of the roughly 1bn tonnes that pass through the Suez Canal annually, underscoring how much of the corridor's appeal rests on shorter transit distances between Asia and Europe rather than sheer scale.

Likhachev warned that synchronising construction across the corridor will be critical. "You can build a port, but not have time to build a railway. You can build a railway, but not have time to build a fleet," he told Expert, arguing that the corridor must develop as one integrated system.

The wider Russian Arctic development programme encompasses 271 projects valued at RUB32.4trn, although the RUB10trn figure relates specifically to transport infrastructure and shipping. Moscow envisages state funding combined with money from Russian businesses, development institutions, and foreign investors.

Attracting overseas capital is likely to be challenging under western sanctions, which makes China increasingly important to the plan. Beijing already holds significant Arctic energy investments and is rapidly expanding its use of the Russian-controlled route. Russia and China have established formal cooperation covering NSR traffic, infrastructure, and polar vessels, with China providing capital and industrial capacity while Russia supplies icebreaker expertise and access to resources.

Chinese carrier Sea Legend launched the first scheduled weekly Arctic container service between China and northern Europe last month, with eight sailings planned during this year's navigation season. The service is advertising China-Europe transit times of around 18 to 20 days, compared with roughly 30 to 40 days via the traditional Suez Canal routing, though the Arctic passage remains seasonal and dependent on icebreaker support.

Splash also reported in August on what appeared to be one of the largest convoys yet assembled on the NSR, including nine tankers waiting north of the Taymyr Peninsula for icebreaker escort, as Russia ramps up crude and LNG movements towards China.

China's involvement is now moving beyond simply purchasing Russian Arctic commodities towards using the route as a genuine international transport corridor. How quickly the announced investment materialises, and whether non-Chinese international participation emerges despite sanctions, will shape the credibility of Moscow's 2035 volume targets.