Australia's GDP data for the April-June quarter is due today, but the main focus in Asia on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision. A rate hike is widely expected, though the view is not unanimous. Among major banks, Westpac has forecast the Official Cash Rate rising to 2.75%, while BNZ argues that inflation and growth strength point to further tightening beyond a single move — leaving the accompanying statement and projections, not just the decision itself, as the key signal for how much more tightening the RBNZ signals from here.

Earlier previews:

• Preview: Westpac sees RBNZ hiking OCR to 2.75% tomorrow, data dependent from there
• Preview - Path of least resistance: ASB expects consensus RBNZ hike this week
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Shadow Board split, most back 25bp rate hike this week
• Preview: Inflation and growth strength point to further RBNZ tightening, BNZ says
• 90% of economists expect RBNZ hike on September 2, poll shows

As noted, Australia's Q2 GDP lands today, and consensus has settled in the 0.2-0.4% q/q range. NAB is the pessimist at 0.2%, CBA and ANZ sit at 0.4%, and J.P. Morgan splits the difference at 0.3%. The more interesting story sits beneath the headline number.

Net exports, which were the chief handbrake on Q1 growth at -0.8 percentage points, swung to a modest +0.1ppt contribution in Q2 — a sharp reversal after trade dragged hardest since the weather-disrupted mining quarter earlier in the year. NAB flagged this possibility ahead of time, attributing it to miners destocking inventory and shipping product offshore rather than any genuine turnaround in import intensity.

That is the catch: private non-farm inventories are tipped to subtract around 0.3ppt this quarter, suggesting the trade improvement may simply be inventory drawdown relabelled as export strength — a rotation of drags rather than a broad acceleration.

Elsewhere, retail volumes rose a soft 0.4% after Q1's decline, while capex remains the standout, running hot on data-centre-related machinery spending. Much of that equipment is imported, however, which is part of the reason net exports have struggled until now. The data-centre buildout ties Australia's GDP composition to the same AI-infrastructure investment theme running through other developed economies, one reason capex has stayed strong even as household-facing demand remains subdued.

Net take: growth will likely print modest and unspectacular, with the composition — trade helping, inventories hurting — doing more work than the headline figure itself. Beyond today, the details on domestic demand versus inventory effects will matter most for how the growth picture is read heading into the next quarter's releases.