A potential upset is developing in Democrats’ fight for the House in the Tampa area of Florida, if one candidate’s internal polling is accurate.

On Tuesday, a survey conducted by Hart Research on behalf of the Leela Gray campaign found incumbent MAGA Republican Anna Paulina Luna trailing 51% to 46% in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. Among unaffiliated voters, Gray was ahead 56% to 39%, and approval of President Donald Trump stood at just 43%. In the poll’s recalled 2024 vote, Trump led by 12 points.

Internal polls are often released selectively when they support a campaign’s message. Even so, they can sometimes identify trends that other polls miss or help campaigns determine which messaging is most effective. That makes the survey especially notable in a district that has been politically fluid in recent cycles, where turnout and persuasion among independents can matter as much as party identification.

Gray says on her campaign website that she is a retired Army brigadier general and small business owner.

Florida’s 13th District was represented for years by former Florida GOP governor-turned-Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist, and Luna won the seat after Crist left to pursue an unsuccessful fourth gubernatorial campaign. Since taking office, Luna has at times been a thorn in the GOP’s side, including her opposition to the Trump administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein saga. Still, she has generally remained a reliable partisan vote for the party on most issues.

GOP strategist Mike Madrid offered a sharp reaction to the new numbers in a post on X: "The loss of Hispanic Republicans is going to be one of the important subtexts coming out of this election cycle."

Madrid, who focuses on trends among Hispanic voters, has long warned that Republicans are headed for a major setback in the midterms.