Odds on Polymarket that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law this year fell sharply again on Monday after spiking the day before, as key Senate Democrats reportedly indicated they had not been swayed by Republicans' “final” proposal for the crypto market-structure bill.

Traders on the prediction platform initially viewed a newly revised Republican draft with expanded ethics provisions as a positive signal, pushing the odds up to 35%. Confidence proved short-lived, however, as reservations about the revised text mounted, and the contract slipped to as low as 16% on Monday. Prediction market prices reflect traders' real-time collective assessment of an outcome's likelihood rather than an official tally of declared support.

US Senator Mark Warner, one of the Democrats involved in the negotiations, reportedly said the revised ethics provision was not “near enough,” while Democrats in the talks began preparing a counterproposal on Monday.

Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill — a filibuster-level threshold that requires backing from at least some Democrats — and a on Tuesday could stall legislation that cleared the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support and would determine how the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission divide oversight of the American crypto market. The CLARITY Act is the second major crypto bill of this Congress, following the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act, which President Donald Trump signed into law in July 2025.

Key Democrats remain unconvinced by ethics offer

Punchbowl News reporter Brendan Pedersen reported that Senator Raphael Warnock said Democrats should not advance legislation that fails to address opportunities for corruption that are occurring “in real time.”

Pedersen also reported that Senator Ruben Gallego said the latest ethics offer left “much to be desired” and that he planned to work on a counterproposal. In a separate report, Pedersen said staff for Senator Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee circulated talking points arguing that the proposed state attorney general enforcement mechanism could be overridden by a determination from White House ethics officials.

Democrats have since sent their counterproposal to Republican negotiators, Politico's Jasper Goodman reported, citing three people with knowledge of the matter.

Not all Democrats oppose advancing the bill toward floor consideration, however. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has privately urged her colleagues to support the procedural motion, Politico reported.

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, for her part, said Donald Trump had accepted two significant ethics provisions and that there was “nothing left to give” Democrats.

The resistance adds to opposition from a coalition of 18 state attorneys general and deepens uncertainty about whether Republicans can assemble the votes needed to advance the bill.

Banking and tribal groups challenge latest text

The Indian Gaming Association, a national organization representing tribal gaming interests, urged member tribes to press senators to vote against the bill, saying its proposed decentralized finance changes failed to address Indian Country's concerns about prediction markets. The association called for explicit language affirming that federal commodities law does not preempt tribal or state gaming laws, including the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

Eight banking trade groups also said the revised text failed to close loopholes allowing stablecoin rewards that function like deposit interest. According to the groups, the proposed regulatory “circuit breaker” would activate only after substantial deposit flight from community banks had already occurred.

Crypto industry groups, by contrast, have urged senators to advance the legislation. In a statement issued on Monday, Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger said the industry had made significant concessions to help build bipartisan support and urged every senator to vote yes. She argued that the bill would provide clear rules, protect consumers and deter illicit activity, while preventing crypto jobs, developers and innovation from moving overseas.