Most Americans Oppose Betting on Elections, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds
Key Takeaways
- •A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,506 US adults found that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose using prediction markets to bet on election results.
- •Opposition extends beyond election-related contracts, with 43% of respondents against betting on professional sports and 29% supporting it.
- •The prediction market industry, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, allows users to trade contracts tied to US elections, government policy moves, and sporting events.
- •The Trump administration is pursuing federal regulation of the industry through the CFTC, with some rules being challenged in court by states and many expecting the dispute to reach the Supreme Court.
- •Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief in a New Jersey case describing the CFTC-state conflict as a national turf war that only the Supreme Court can resolve.
Most Americans oppose the use of prediction markets to bet on US elections and other government actions, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The survey of 4,506 adults nationwide, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, found that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they opposed using prediction markets to wager on election results. Double-digit majorities on both sides of the political divide indicate the opposition crosses party lines rather than tracking a single partisan audience.
Even betting on professional sports, a mainstay offering on prediction market platforms, faced opposition: 43% of respondents said they opposed it, while 29% supported it, the poll said. The results point to skepticism that reaches beyond election-related contracts, the category at the center of the industry's most prominent court disputes.
Fast-growing industry, contested oversight
The prediction market industry, led by platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, enables users to bet on US elections, government policy moves and sporting events. Prediction markets are exchanges where participants trade contracts whose payouts depend on the outcomes of real-world events, with contract prices reflecting the perceived probability of each outcome. Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, drew widespread attention for its trading volumes during the 2024 US presidential election, while Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, prevailed in a 2024 federal court dispute that cleared it to list contracts on US congressional election results.
The sector's growth has triggered a series of lawsuits involving state and federal agencies over who has the authority to regulate these markets.
President Donald Trump's administration is pursuing federal regulations for the industry through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), some of which are being challenged in court by several states. Many expect the dispute to reach the US Supreme Court. The interplay between the CFTC's rulemaking and the states' legal challenges is the thread to follow as the jurisdictional fight moves through the courts.
Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 8 that 39 states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief (PDF) in a New Jersey case contending that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction markets had resulted in a "national turf war" that could not be resolved without an answer from the Supreme Court.
Related: Blockchain.com pursues CFTC approval prediction markets: CNBC
Magazine: Exchanges reporting crypto gains to IRS becomes tax nightmare
