Money sent home by Filipinos working overseas grew by less than 2% for the third straight month in August, as lingering geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on remittance flows and the deployment of Filipino workers abroad, analysts said.

Preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed cash remittances coursed through banks by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) climbed 1.9% year on year to $3.035 billion in August, from $2.977 billion a year earlier. The annual pace matched July's reading and was the slowest since June's more-than-four-year low of 1.7%.

By amount, August posted the lowest monthly level in three months, or since the $2.713 billion recorded in May. Month on month, cash remittances fell 6.3% from $3.24 billion.

Land-based workers accounted for the bulk of the total, with cash remittances from this group rising 2.2% to $2.404 billion in August from $2.351 billion in the same month a year ago. Sea-based workers sent home $631.116 million, inching up 0.8% from $626.118 million.

"The United States remained the top source of inflows, followed by Singapore and Saudi Arabia," the central bank said in a statement on Thursday.

Moderate Pace Amid Uncertainty

Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion attributed the muted growth largely to weaker deployment and persistent global uncertainties.

"August remittances suggest that overseas Filipino inflows remain resilient but are growing at a more moderate pace amid softer deployment and global uncertainties," he said in a Viber message. "While geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges, remittances have historically been among the country's most stable external inflows."

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, a senior research fellow at the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said tighter economic conditions in host countries likely softened inflows.

"The slowdown likely reflected seasonal factors, moderating remittance growth from major host economies, and persistent economic uncertainties abroad," he said via Facebook Messenger. "Inflation and higher living costs in countries where Filipino workers are employed may have also constrained their capacity to send money home."

Separately, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said heavy rains and floods, which led to class and work suspensions, likely dampened remittance inflows during the month.

"Weather-related disturbance in view of the typhoons or flooding during the month that reduced business days or working days could have also slowed down OFW remittances," he said in a Viber message.

Even so, elevated commodity prices in the Philippines may have prompted OFWs to keep sending money home to support their beneficiaries, Mr. Ricafort noted. Headline inflation eased to a five-month low of 6.1% in August but remained above the BSP's 3% target for a sixth consecutive month, a stretch that began when the Middle East war erupted.

"The continued single-digit year-on-year growth in OFW remittances nevertheless is still a good signal or bright spot for the overall economy as an important growth driver, especially in terms of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the Philippine economy," Mr. Ricafort said.

Personal Remittances

Personal remittances — which include cash sent through banks and informal channels as well as in-kind transfers — amounted to $3.372 billion in August, up 2% from the $3.307 billion logged a year prior.

"Seasonally adjusted personal remittances, which include cash sent through banks and informal channels as well as remittances in kind, also increased slightly in August 2026, suggesting sustained underlying remittance growth after accounting for seasonal factors," the BSP said.

Eight-Month Period

In the eight months to August, cash remittances rose 2.2% to $23.424 billion from $22.909 billion in the same period last year. Personal remittances went up 2.3% to $26.098 billion from $25.513 billion a year earlier.

"Cash and personal remittances also moderately grew in January-August 2026," the central bank said. "These inflows continued to underpin household spending and domestic economic activity, reflecting the resilience of remittance flows as a key source of household income and external financing."

OFWs in the United States accounted for 39.8% of total cash remittances in the eight-month period, followed by those in Singapore (7.1%), Saudi Arabia (6.3%), Japan (4.9%), and the United Kingdom (4.8%).

Cash remittances from land-based workers reached $18.75 billion as of August, up 2.3% from $18.32 billion in the comparable year-ago period. Sea-based workers, meanwhile, sent home $4.67 billion, a 1.9% increase from $4.59 billion.

Outlook

Mr. Asuncion expects remittances to recover in the coming months on a holiday-driven boost, keeping the BSP's full-year projection attainable.

"With seasonal holiday-related transfers typically picking up in the fourth quarter, the BSP's 2.7% growth (projection) for 2026 remains within reach, provided current trends hold through yearend," he said.

Meeting that projection would require growth to firm from the 2.2% pace notched in the first eight months, a pickup analysts expect the holiday-heavy fourth quarter to help deliver.

Mr. Peña-Reyes noted that remittances typically rise in the months ahead of the holiday season.

"Remittances are expected to remain on an upward trajectory in Q4, supported by the traditional increase in money transfers ahead of Christmas, when overseas Filipinos provide additional assistance for family expenses, education, and holiday spending," he said. "However, growth may remain moderate amid geopolitical tensions, inflation, and uncertainty in overseas labor markets. The strength of seasonal inflows will depend partly on employment stability in major host countries."

Mr. Ricafort sees cash remittances rebounding to annual growth rates of 2%-3% for the remainder of the year, with the weak peso boosting gains from dollar-denominated inflows.

A weaker peso means each dollar sent home converts into more, lifting the local-currency value of the money that beneficiary families receive.

On Thursday, the peso breached the P63 handle against the dollar for the first time, closing at P63.06. That was 19 centavos weaker than its P62.87 finish on Wednesday and broke the previous record low of P62.90 set on Oct. 8, according to Bankers Association of the Philippines data.

In its latest balance of payments forecast as of the third quarter, the BSP said inflows from OFW remittances will continue to cushion the country's external position against ongoing global risks. The central bank projects cash remittances to grow 2.7% to $36.6 billion by yearend from $35.6 billion in 2025.

Originally reported by Katherine K. Chan for BusinessWorld: Philippines' cash remittance growth below 2% for third month