U.S. Markets Face Packed Week: July PCE Inflation, Jobs Data and Fed's Warsh at Jackson Hole
Key Takeaways
- •The July PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, will be released Wednesday, with economists forecasting a 0.2% month-over-month rise in core PCE that would keep the annual rate above the 2% target.
- •Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, August 28, and investors will watch his remarks for guidance on inflation, growth, and interest rate decisions.
- •Nvidia will report quarterly results before U.S. markets open on August 27, providing an update on artificial intelligence demand and technology sector performance.
- •The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $69 billion in two-year notes, $70 billion in five-year notes, and $44 billion in seven-year notes, after boosting long-end buyback operations as long-term yields rose.
- •Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce new economic sanctions against Iran, a move that could influence oil prices and broader risk sentiment after Brent crude futures gained in the prior week.
U.S. financial markets head into a packed week with inflation, economic growth and Federal Reserve policy expectations in focus. July PCE inflation, second-quarter GDP revisions and Nvidia earnings all arrive on Wednesday, creating one of the busiest sessions of the week, before attention turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.
Weekly jobless claims, consumer confidence and GDP updates will provide fresh signals on economic conditions, while Treasury auctions, Nvidia earnings and energy market developments remain key events for investors. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions could add further volatility across bond, equity and energy markets at a time when traders are already parsing whether recent data are showing steadier growth or early signs of cooling.
PCE Inflation Data Takes Center Stage
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the July PCE price index, will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect core PCE inflation to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, keeping the annual rate above the central bank's 2% target.
The report will provide fresh insight into price pressures ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Recent CPI and producer price data showed some moderation, reducing pressure on policymakers to make immediate changes to interest rates.
Wednesday's calendar also includes the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July durable goods orders. Consumer confidence data arrives on Tuesday, followed by weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The employment figures will provide additional insight into labor market conditions after recent reports showed signs of cooling, while the GDP revision will help confirm how momentum held up through the spring.
Fed Chair Warsh Set for Jackson Hole Speech
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, August 28. The event brings together global central bankers and policymakers to discuss monetary policy and economic conditions.
Investors will monitor Warsh's comments for details about the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, economic growth and interest rate decisions. The Fed has kept its attention on inflation risks while reviewing incoming economic data.
The speech comes after changes in Treasury markets, with long-term yields rising in recent weeks. The U.S. Treasury Department responded by increasing long-end bond buyback operations for 10-year to 30-year securities.
Treasury auctions will also attract attention, with the government scheduled to sell $69 billion in two-year notes, $70 billion in five-year notes and $44 billion in seven-year notes. That supply will land as investors weigh how much demand remains for government debt amid shifting expectations for the policy path.
Jobs Data and Growth Signals Remain in Focus
Employment indicators will remain a key focus for investors throughout the week. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday will show whether labor market conditions continue to soften.
The Federal Reserve has been monitoring employment alongside inflation when assessing interest rate policy. Recent labor data showed weaker hiring conditions, giving policymakers more time to evaluate economic trends.
Canada's second-quarter GDP release will also arrive on Friday, adding another regional growth indicator for global markets. The data will show how the economy performed after facing pressure from trade uncertainty with the United States.
Consumer sentiment results from the University of Michigan will provide another view of household expectations. The report will arrive on Friday alongside Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance, adding another read on how consumers are viewing inflation, jobs and spending conditions.
Stocks, Commodities and Energy Risks in View
Corporate earnings will remain part of the U.S. market focus, with Nvidia scheduled to release quarterly results before U.S. markets open on August 27. The company's results will provide updates on artificial intelligence demand and technology sector performance, making it one of the week’s most closely watched corporate reports.
Energy markets will also attract attention after oil prices moved higher in recent weeks. Brent crude futures gained during the previous week as traders monitored developments surrounding U.S. sanctions against Iran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce details of new economic sanctions against Iran during the week. The announcement could influence energy markets and broader risk sentiment.
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Primary source: RBC Economics - U.S. Week Ahead
