When telecommunications operators decide where to build towers, they weigh return on investment, sustainability and security — and the calculus almost always favors urban centers over rural communities. That leaves millions of Nigerians in underserved areas waiting for connectivity that market forces alone are unlikely to deliver.

The federal government is now intervening. Under the Nigeria Universal Communication Access Project (NUCAP), it is rolling out 3,700 telecom towers in rural communities with the aim of bringing 20 million rural Nigerians online.

The economics of the effort are unforgiving. Rural areas carry the country's widest connectivity divide: population densities are low, purchasing power is weaker, and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is limited. Yet the capital and operational costs of running a rural tower remain the same as those of an identical tower in an urban area.

That is where the real question lies. The project has recorded its first tower deployment in Bende, Abia State, but the federal government — through Dr Bosun Tijani, Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy — has yet to give a clear answer on who will maintain the towers and shoulder their operational costs to keep them sustainable.

"One of the fundamental challenges with extending telecommunications infrastructure into rural areas is the commercial viability of such investments," Solomon Otema, a telecom expert with deep knowledge of telecom tower management, told Technext. "I believe the real challenge is not necessarily constructing the towers themselves but ensuring the long-term operational sustainability of the infrastructure," he added.

Who takes the operational responsibility?

The federal government does not have the operational capacity to run 3,700 towers across remote Nigeria. Even established operators and tower management companies such as IHS Towers, ATS and Indus Towers often struggle to protect fibre optic cables, base stations and other telecom infrastructure from theft and vandalism in rural Nigeria.

The Federal Government is reportedly proposing to implement the project through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), with the government retaining a majority equity stake. The specific arrangements governing long-term operations and maintenance would ultimately depend the commercial agreements established with participating entities — agreements that have yet to be detailed.

Under that structure, the government's best is to partner with mobile network operators (MNOs) and tower companies (TowerCos): certain towers would remain under MNO ownership, while the TowerCos assume responsibility for managing and maintaining the infrastructure on their behalf in exchange for an agreed management fee.

"I would favour an arrangement where the government facilitates the initial investment and experienced private-sector operators assume long-term operational responsibility under clearly defined performance obligations," Otema said, noting that the government should focus on facilitating investment and ensuring appropriate governance and accountability.

He added that the contractual framework should also clearly define responsibilities for routine maintenance, corrective interventions, security, power availability, major equipment replacement and long-term asset renewal.

Another concern is that the federal government did not mention the involvement of MNOs and TowerCos in the facilitation of the project, even though MTN, Airtel and Globacom already possess established telecoms networks, spectrum resources, customer relationships and experience delivering services across Nigeria.

"A project of this nature requires more than capital investment. It requires infrastructure deployment capabilities, telecommunications network integration, operational expertise, commercial arrangements, and long-term asset management," Otema said.

Their participation — particularly from the planning and design stages — would be important in ensuring that the proposed infrastructure locations align with network expansion requirements and can be effectively integrated into operational telecoms networks.

Measuring the 3,700 towers' success

Historically, Nigerian infrastructure projects stall or stumble when transitioning beyond Phase 1. A similar rural connectivity effort, initiated in 2001 under the National Rural Telephony Project (NRTP), never progressed beyond the planning and execution stage, having suffered from poor design and a lack of proper oversight.

If this project is to perform differently, Otema suggests that its success should be measured not simply by whether 3,700 towers have been constructed, but by whether the investment has delivered the value it was intended to create.

Last week, Tijani unveiled an infrastructure roadmap to deploy 1,989 new towers across 436 local government areas (LGAs), tagged as the initial phase of the 3,700-tower project, and the first tower has already been launched in Bende, Abia State. With the entire project expected to be completed by 2028, attention is fixed on the success rate and the government's ability to ensure adequate completion. Three open details will shape how the rollout is judged as it advances: the SPV's final operating model, whether MNOs and TowerCos are formally brought into the project, and delivery pace across the 436 LGAs in the initial phase.

Beyond measuring complete delivery, Otema believes value creation from this infrastructure should be a priority. According to him, the project should be measured against three key performance indicators: infrastructure outputs, connectivity outcomes and broader socioeconomic impact.

He noted that a project could successfully construct all 3,700 towers within the approved timelines and budget and, on that basis, be considered successful. "However, if a significant proportion of those towers are not delivering reliable connectivity to the intended communities, one would have to question whether the project has actually achieved its objectives," he added.

Quality-driven metrics, in turn, would measure the proportion of sites carrying live telecoms traffic, network availability, service quality, and the number of previously underserved people who have gained access to reliable connectivity.

Smartphone affordability and digital literacy pose a threat

Amid these success indicators, a further question arises: what happens when people have the network but are unable to utilise it?

Extending network coverage to a rural community could improve access to market information, facilitate financial transactions, enable communication between businesses and customers, and help farmers obtain necessary insights. But the extent to which these opportunities translate into measurable economic benefits still depends on smartphone affordability and digital literacy.

A GSMA report shows that about 140 million Nigerians are in a usage gap — they live within the coverage map but are unable to access internet services due to affordability constraints, among other factors. That figure is roughly seven times the number of people NUCAP aims to connect, underlining that extending coverage and closing the usage gap are distinct problems.

Despite these challenges, Otema noted that this does not suggest basic connectivity has no value in the absence of smartphones or advanced digital literacy. Even access to reliable voice and basic messaging services can deliver meaningful social and economic benefits, particularly in communities that previously had limited or no telecoms coverage.

The headline objective of the 3,700-tower project remains providing network and internet access to 20 million Nigerians. But "the objective should not merely be to connect 20 million people, but to ensure that connecting those 20 million people creates meaningful and sustainable economic value," Otema noted.