Morgan Stanley has analyzed production data from approximately 4,000 oil and gas fields to assess the growth outlook for European energy majors through 2030.

The analysis shows that aggregate production growth for the sector improved to 2.9% annually for 2025-2030, up from 1.2% in the previous year's forecast. Rolling four-year forward production increased by 8.3%. The field-level, bottom-up methodology — drawing on data from multiple consultants — is intended to give analysts a more granular view of where each company's upstream portfolio is heading than company guidance alone, which can rest on assumptions about yet-to-be-sanctioned projects.

Eni emerged with the strongest production runway among the companies studied. The Italian major is projected to deliver production growth of 4.5% through 2030, with further increases expected through 2034. A substantial portion of that runway reflects Eni's strategy of fast-track development cycles and its footprint in gas-rich regions such as Africa and the Middle East, where it has brought projects from discovery to production faster than the industry norm. Equinor, by contrast, faces the largest challenges in production growth among the group; the Norwegian producer's mature North Sea base and a project queue that is more heavily weighted toward the second half of the decade make near-term growth harder to come by.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Shell to Overweight and designated the Anglo-Dutch major as a Top Pick, with an expected total shareholder return of 15%. The firm anticipates significant dividend per share acceleration following recent business improvements at the company, including the wind-down of its dual-share structure and buyback programs that have reduced the share count.

The firm also maintains an Overweight rating on BP, citing expectations for faster net debt reduction than the company's stated targets, an attractive valuation, and multiple potential catalysts.

The research used bottom-up data from multiple data consultants to map the production growth outlook across the European major oil companies. The European energy sector, which includes companies such as Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Equinor, and Eni, has in recent years focused on capital discipline and shareholder returns, balancing oil and gas investment with commitments to lower-carbon energy sources. For investors and industry watchers, the field-by-field data offers a way to track which of those commitments are translating into actual barrels: upcoming quarterly production reports and final investment decisions on major projects will show whether the improved growth outlook holds.

Source: Investing.com