Republicans remain behind in a must-win Senate race in a key swing state ahead of the midterm elections, and one of the nation's top election forecasting experts warned that the party is nearly out of time to turn things around.

President Donald Trump's weak standing with voters has damaged the GOP's midterm prospects, making it increasingly possible that the party could lose its Senate majority as well as the House of Representatives. Because senators are elected in statewide contests, a single battleground miss can decide which party controls the chamber — and with it the fate of legislation and presidential nominations. One of the make-or-break contests is in Michigan, where former Republican congressman Mike Rogers continues to trail his Democratic opponent, epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed. Republicans have tried to torpedo El-Sayed's candidacy by portraying his progressive positions as too left-wing and by pointing to his past affiliations with controversial commentator Hasan Piker, but so far those efforts have not appeared to seal the deal with voters.

Decision Desk HQ is widely considered one of the foremost sources for election results tracking in the United States. Its forecast models translate polling and campaign fundamentals into win probabilities that update as new data arrives, making the numbers a snapshot of the race rather than a guaranteed outcome. Its director of data science, Scott Tranter, told NewsNation on Sunday that "time is running out" for Rogers to reverse his fortunes, adding that the race is "closer than it should be if you're the Republicans and want to keep the Senate." The site currently gives El-Sayed a 67 percent chance of winning, with Rogers at just 33 percent.

"El-Sayed's got the momentum. It's pretty undeniable," Tranter explained. "Michigan's going to start voting in about a month on the early side. And look, everything you know about Michigan — about a third of that is going to come in before Election Day. So Mike Rogers's time is running out." That timeline sets up the first hard checkpoint of the race: once early ballots begin flowing, the pre-Election Day vote share will offer the first concrete read of the Michigan electorate beyond the models.

Tranter also agreed with host Chris Stirewalt that El-Sayed could face scrutiny from Michigan's notable bloc of pro-Palestinian Muslim voters, given his past support for former Vice President Kamala Harris, whose association with the Biden administration and its support for Israel was widely credited with tanking her chances in the state. El-Sayed has also faced pushback from pro-Israel voters over his criticism of the country's war in Gaza and his support for ending U.S. military aid over the conflict.

Rogers, meanwhile, has drawn criticism for his years-long shift from a more traditional Republican into a staunchly pro-MAGA Trump loyalist. The former congressman has backed the president's hugely unpopular tariff agenda, which has had an outsized effect on Michigan — particularly amid the recently reignited trade war against Canada. He has also been supportive of Trump's war in Iran, with The Nation describing him as a "mega-hawk who has pushed for war with Iran for more than 20 years."