The McDonald's McRib has become a crypto meme in recent years, with many traders convinced that its reintroduction to the fast-food chain's menu precedes a rally in Bitcoin's price. Now, with the tangy pork sandwich back in certain states across the U.S., crypto traders are getting excited again.

Experts, however, have taken the McRib theory off the menu, arguing that those parroting it are conveniently forgetting all of the times the sandwich's return has failed to coincide with a Bitcoin price increase.

"The McRib is back on 10/27. BTC historically goes up >2x after the McRib returns. Don't fade the McRib. Not financial advice." pic.twitter.com/RxBuzcVht5

— internbrah (@internbrah) October 22, 2026

"There is no correlation at all," Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, told Decrypt. "Whilst it is a fun exercise, it seems to be that people omit McRib returns when it doesn't fit the narrative."

Nolan shared a chart tracking the McRib's return against Bitcoin's weekly close, showing that only three out of 10 McRib returns posted clearly positive Bitcoin returns. In fact, the sandwich's comeback has often preceded major drops in valuation. The item, which McDonald's sells only in limited-time runs, has spawned the recurring joke that traders should never "fade the McRib" — trader slang for dismissing a call or betting against it — whenever it reappears.

Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at crypto trading firm GSR, told Decrypt there is "no causal mechanism" behind the pattern, and that any price gains following the McRib's reintroduction are simply a "funny coincidence."

"Let's say, hypothetically, it did indicate the start of a bull run, it would be quite nonsensical, similar to when people overlaid the Dune movie releases," Nolan said. "So yes, it's fun, generates some excitement, but even in the best case, purely coincidental."

Guzman agreed, adding that the crypto community likely clings to the theory precisely because it is "silly" and "obviously absurd" — and because people find it funny.

What Will Actually Move Bitcoin?

This year's McRib return lands while Bitcoin sits in what André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, has called "wait and see mode", with traders holding off on big bets until they see what the Federal Reserve does next. Fed decisions rank among the most closely watched events on crypto traders' calendars, since they shape expectations for borrowing costs and the broader liquidity backdrop for risk assets.

Bitcoin has seen fairly limited activity over the past month, according to Decrypt data, dropping just 6% as it sits at $79,750. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and CPI then rose 0.6% for the month, an inflation print that feeds directly into the central bank's rate calculus. Its next rate decision is due Wednesday.

That decision is one of three catalysts arriving over the next two weeks, Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks, told Decrypt. The other two are an options expiry of $11.69 billion worth of Bitcoin on October 30 — a date derivatives traders circle because that much notional value settles at once — and the U.S. midterms on November 3.

"If the Fed keeps rates the same and ETF inflows keep coming, I'd expect the break to be upward," Koch-Gallup told Decrypt last week. "If the Fed hikes again, the $75,000 to $77,000 floor comes back into play."

If the Fed delivers what the market is hoping for, then Bitcoin's price could indeed jump over the coming days — just as the McRib returns to McDonald's stores. Coincidence? Experts think so.