Bitcoin (BTC) onchain transaction data is pointing to the start of a new uptrend as long-term holders retreat from selling, according to fresh analysis from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

The share of Bitcoin's realized cap — the value of all coins measured at the price they last moved onchain — attributable to coins dormant for 18 months or longer has held broadly stable since mid-September, easing from 26.98% to 26.59%. CryptoQuant's analysis shows that longer reductions in this cohort's onchain activity have accompanied the start of previous Bitcoin bull markets. Separately, coins that last moved at least five years ago now account for around 34,000 BTC in monthly onchain volume — half the level recorded in 2024.

Old coin dormancy points to "early stages" of Bitcoin bull market

Data from CryptoQuant shows that investors holding coins for 18 months or longer are beginning to become less active. On Sept. 16, the 18-month-plus cohort's share of realized cap hit 26.98%, its highest reading since mid-November 2024. Analyzing the figures, the firm identified a historical trend that preceded prior Bitcoin bull markets now repeating. Indicators of this kind are widely watched because long-dormant coins sit with the holders least reactive to short-term price moves, so changes in their spending habits are read as shifts in long-term conviction across the market.

"The pattern has always been the same: when the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months across the entire network rises and then starts to decline, a strong rally follows," CryptoQuant wrote in a blog post. The publication included a chart of Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands, sized according to their contribution to realized cap.

Reduced onchain spending by long-term investors reflects a decision to maintain BTC exposure in order to increase profitability over the long term. The cohort's contribution had remained in a broad uptrend beginning in November 2025, with profit-taking activity rising as BTC/USD fell further from its current all-time high of $126,200.

CryptoQuant noted that the UTXO trend reversal remains modest, implying that the market is witnessing only the very start of more bullish conditions. "The market has now shifted into a bullish cycle, but we still appear to be in the early stages of the cycle, where such a signal has not even begun yet," it commented, adding: "This looks like a point where we can remain positive about both the potential upside and the duration of the rally."

Bitcoin drawdown from all-time highs still shallowest on record

Among long-term holders, only the 18-month-to-two-year cohort is currently in net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193 — the average price level implied by where that cohort's coins last moved onchain. Since Bitcoin's 2025 all-time highs, price has fallen below this cohort's cost basis, while older cohorts have remained in aggregate profit. According to CryptoQuant, 2026 therefore marks the first bear market in which price has stayed above the 2-3-year cohort's cost basis.

In a report released last week, crypto investment company Galaxy Digital described the current cycle as the "shallowest" bear market on record, with a maximum drawdown versus all-time highs of -53%.

BTC held in custody for five years or more — coins that Galaxy says were responsible for the supply glut that halted price upside at $126,200 — are now also supporting the case for a fresh long-term uptrend. "Coins unmoved for five years or more moved at 67k BTC a month in 2024 and 47k in 2025… totaling 1.11 million BTC since October 2024, the largest old-coin distribution of any cycle, most of it absorbed by the spot ETFs and BTC digital asset treasury (DAT) companies," the firm wrote. United States spot Bitcoin ETFs only began trading in January 2024, a buyer category that did not exist during previous cycles' old-coin distribution waves.

In 2026, the volume supplied by the five-year-plus cohort has averaged 34,000 BTC per month, half as much as in 2024, according to Galaxy's UTXO data. Because both CryptoQuant's age-band readings and Galaxy's old-coin supply figures are published on an ongoing basis, subsequent updates will show whether the pullback in spending by these cohorts continues.