President Donald Trump holds considerable political advantages heading into the midterm elections, according to Larry Kudlow, who served as Director of the National Economic Council under Trump and now hosts a program on Fox Business Network. While acknowledging that issues such as the economy, voter ID reform, tax and spending cuts, Democratic socialism, GDP growth, real incomes, and affordability all carry weight, Kudlow argued that the defining issue of the upcoming election cycle will be the war in Iran and its outcome.

Kudlow stated that the key war objectives — reopening the Strait of Hormuz and eliminating Tehran's nuclear capabilities — amount to winning the war, and he believes Trump is in a stronger position than most polls or pundits suggest. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which roughly a fifth of global oil consumption transits daily, making its status directly relevant to worldwide energy markets and consumer fuel costs. He noted that Trump is the first president in 47 years to directly confront Iran, adding that Iran has been damaged far more than is publicly acknowledged and that the United States is now positioned to bring the conflict to a conclusion.

Kudlow expressed frustration with headline opinion polls, criticizing those that survey all adults rather than registered or likely voters. He argued that such polling methodology is systematically weighted against Trump and the Republican Party.

As a counterexample, Kudlow pointed to a new poll on Iran sponsored by the Tea Party Patriots Action Survey and conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a firm that regularly works with Republican campaigns and conservative organizations. When asked whether Iran should be permitted to block, attack, mine, or extort ships in the Strait of Hormuz, 72% of respondents disagreed — aligning with what Kudlow described as a central goal of Trump's policy.

The survey also asked whether the United States should "finish the job" with Iran. Overall, 62% agreed, a figure that encompasses the objective of ensuring Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon — the other major war goal articulated by Trump.

The poll was conducted on July 22 among 1,000 general election voters, described as individuals who actually cast ballots and whose demographic composition reflects the broader electorate.

Kudlow acknowledged uncertainty about whether the conflict will be resolved or the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened by the time of the midterms. However, he indicated that Trump appears to be pursuing an aggressive, full-speed-ahead military strategy. According to Kudlow, this approach includes combat operations aimed at reopening the strait, isolating Iran from global trade, intensifying economic sanctions, and launching covert operations with Israel to achieve regime change and remove the current Islamic government.

Kudlow suggested that such regime-change efforts may have already begun and will likely escalate. He argued that if Trump maintains this approach, the results could manifest favorably in the coming months or sooner, with energy and gasoline prices declining.

Beyond economic effects, Kudlow characterized the potential outcome as a historic victory for freedom, peace, and prosperity in the Middle East — one that, in his view, will ultimately determine the result of the midterm elections. With control of both chambers of Congress at stake, the trajectory of the conflict and its impact on voter sentiment in the months leading up to November will be a central dynamic shaping both parties' campaign strategies.