Kalshi, an exchange where users trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events, is investigating at least three wagers placed on Katie Zacharia before news outlets identified her as President Donald Trump's next White House press secretary, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal. The bets — stakes of roughly $19, $74 and $80 — carried expected payouts totaling $9,608, although those figures do not represent net profits. The exchange has confirmed the inquiry but has not publicly established that the traders used confidential information or breached its rules.

Traders backed Zacharia before Friday's reports, at a time when the market assigned her roughly a 1% chance of securing the role. The timing has drawn scrutiny, although the reported bets alone do not show that anyone traded using confidential government information. The episode touches on a central issue for real-money markets on government decisions: separating traders who acted on public signals from those who may have had access to information that was never public. The review also comes as employment disclosures and congressional investigations place prediction markets under closer examination over their handling of nonpublic information.

Timing and Potential Payouts Under Review

The investigation centers on one Thursday evening wager and two trades placed shortly before Friday's reports. A $19 position carried an expected payout of $1,896. Two further wagers, worth approximately $74 and $80, were placed at 1:41 p.m. Friday. Their expected payouts were $3,689 and $4,023, respectively. News reports identifying Zacharia began appearing around 2 p.m.

These figures describe potential settlement payouts rather than confirmed net profits, and the amounts exclude any adjustment for fees. A large percentage return can follow a successful bet on an outcome initially considered unlikely.

The investigation has not publicly established how the traders chose their positions or whether they shared information. Publicly visible transactions show timing and amounts, but they cannot independently establish a trader's knowledge or intent.

Trump subsequently announced Zacharia as his choice through Truth Social. She previously worked as a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson and advised Trump Media on communications. She will replace Karoline Leavitt, who left the press secretary position earlier this year. The White House referred to Trump's announcement when asked about the inquiry.

Trader identities remain confidential to the public, while Kalshi retains internal identification records for compliance purposes. Those records give the platform information unavailable to outside observers reviewing market activity. No publicly announced finding has linked these accounts to officials involved in the appointment, and neither the size of the payouts nor the timing resolves that question.

Tighter Monitoring for Political Betting Markets

The inquiry follows a separate enforcement case involving former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez. In August, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission settled charges over his use of advance access to presidential speeches. The regulator ordered Perez to return $107,539.02 in trading profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty, and it also imposed a three-year trading ban. The repayment and penalty represent distinct components of the settlement.

That established case provides context for the Kalshi investigation without determining its outcome. The Zacharia traders have not been publicly shown to possess comparable access to nonpublic material.

Scrutiny of prediction markets has also prompted changes to platform controls. In June, Kalshi introduced employment disclosures for markets carrying heightened risks of insider trading or manipulation. The company reported more than 150 investigations during the first quarter, alongside over 20 referrals to law enforcement. It also disclosed five disciplinary actions and screening tools that blocked more than 100 potential insider trades. Those figures cover the broader enforcement program rather than findings about the appointment wagers, and an investigation or referral does not itself establish a completed rule violation.

Kalshi's update also introduced new tools for reporting suspected misconduct. Users can submit tips directly to the surveillance team through individual markets.

Congress is separately examining safeguards across prediction markets. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer launched an inquiry involving Kalshi and Polymarket in May. The committee has requested information about identity checks and systems for detecting suspicious activity. In a subsequent update, it reported receiving nearly 1,000 documents and five briefings from representatives of the two platforms. Neither the committee's review nor Kalshi's investigation has produced a public conclusion on the Zacharia wagers, leaving both tracks open as the oversight effort continues.