JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he would not invest in long-dated U.S. Treasuries or the S&P 500 at current levels, citing persistent fiscal deficits, elevated global debt and geopolitical risks.

Dimon made the remarks in a July 21 interview with The Master Investor Podcast, hosted by Wilfred Frost. He said structural pressures from government borrowing are likely to keep long-term bond yields from falling sharply, even if inflation returns to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Dimon has been a recurring voice on fiscal and geopolitical risk, having raised similar cautions in prior annual shareholder letters and congressional testimony, where he flagged the U.S. deficit trajectory as among the most underappreciated risks to markets.

Dimon Points to Deficits as a Constraint on Bond Yields

Dimon said government deficits continue to widen across major economies, creating pressure on bond markets that he does not view as temporary. In his view, those fiscal imbalances limit how far yields can realistically decline over time. The U.S. federal deficit remains a subject of ongoing debate in Congress, with the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projecting deficits and interest costs to rise over the coming decade as spending outpaces revenue.

He said a 10-year U.S. Treasury yield in the range of 4% to 4.5% reflects structural conditions rather than short-term market volatility. Even if inflation cools to 2%, Dimon said that would not meaningfully change his view on long-dated Treasuries.

Dimon argued that long-term yields are being shaped by more than inflation alone. Fiscal deficits, he said, remain a key factor keeping yields elevated. Investors expecting a sharp drop in yields may be overlooking the scale and persistence of government borrowing pressures, he suggested.

He also linked his caution on bonds to broader global risks, including geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Dimon said such pressures increase the likelihood of unexpected shocks that could affect bond markets. Clips from the interview circulated widely on social media after the podcast was released.

Dimon emphasized that his comments applied specifically to long-dated Treasuries, not to short-term holdings. Shorter-maturity instruments, he said, carry less exposure to the deficit-driven risks he described. He framed his position as a response to structural fiscal and geopolitical conditions, rather than an attempt to time short-term market moves.

Dimon Says He Prefers Individual Stocks Over the S&P 500

Dimon also said he would not allocate major capital to the S&P 500 at current prices. He said he prefers analyzing and selecting individual companies instead of buying a broad market index when valuations appear elevated. The index's concentration in a handful of mega-cap technology companies has been a recurring topic among market analysts, as those names have driven a disproportionate share of the index's recent performance.

That approach, he said, gives him more ability to avoid paying too much for companies he views as fully valued. Dimon added that he would consider the S&P 500 if valuations became attractive enough, indicating that his position is selective rather than a permanent rejection of equities.

His comments placed the focus on company-level fundamentals rather than broad index exposure. Dimon connected his caution toward equities to many of the same concerns he raised about bonds, including global deficits, debt levels and geopolitical uncertainty.

He said high levels of global debt create risk for both stock and bond valuations. Those combined pressures are among the reasons he said he would be reluctant to make large purchases in either asset class at current levels.

Dimon also described the current banking environment as favorable, saying conditions are "almost as good as it gets." As CEO of the largest U.S. bank by assets, Dimon's read on the sector carries particular attention on Wall Street. However, he warned that underlying risks remain higher than many investors currently assume. He identified global deficits and unresolved conflicts as key threats facing markets.