The main event for markets today comes later from Jackson Hole, where all eyes will be on Fed Chair Warsh's keynote speech. The annual symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Wyoming, has a history of doubling as a policy platform: Ben Bernanke used his 2010 remarks to lay the groundwork for a second round of quantitative easing, and Jerome Powell unveiled the flexible average inflation targeting framework there in 2020. That track record is one reason a speech expected to carry little guidance is still commanding this much attention.

Warsh will be placed under the microscope as investors look for greater clarity on how the Fed intends to deal with inflation pressures, especially if things continue down this path. Last month, he suggested that he wanted markets to take the lead, but the US Treasury intervention has made the situation considerably more complicated.

With long-term bonds under pressure, Warsh will face heavy scrutiny over how the Fed views that situation. And if he does not address it, over what the Fed's response will be to the Treasury's intervention, and whether that action will interfere with the central bank's policy path and/or monetary policy transmission. The long end matters well beyond bond desks: longer-dated Treasury yields feed into mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, so anything that muddies how Fed policy passes through to the real economy is more than a technical concern.

From earlier this week: Will Warsh play it cool and let Bessent take the wheel for now?

Goldman Sachs, however, expects there will not be much to gather from Warsh's speech later. The firm notes:

"We expect Warsh to reiterate his commitment to the 2% inflation target, expand on the rationale behind his approach to Fed communication, and offer thoughts on some bigger picture topics such as productivity growth or shocks to the global economy that he alluded to at his last press conference. He is likely to acknowledge the better recent inflation news but is unlikely to provide policy guidance. The theme of this year's symposium is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." The papers are likely to discuss topics such as stablecoins and should have little immediate relevance to monetary policy decisions."

And they are not alone. Deutsche also agrees that Warsh is unlikely to offer much of anything that we don't already know:

"Warsh's Jackson Hole speech provides a timely opportunity for the Fed's new leader to clarify his vision for the central bank, either through a "big picture" talk focused on the task forces or through a policy-relevant discourse that cleans up some missteps in recent communications and presents scenarios for the outlook. Given his overall inclination to provide limited information about the policy outlook, we think his comments will most likely skew to the former, though we will be attentive to any additional signals on the latter."

With both banks expecting little in the way of guidance, the practical checklist for the speech narrows to a few items: whether the long end of the Treasury curve earns a mention at all, how firmly Warsh anchors the 2% inflation goal, and how he frames the Treasury's role in the bond market. In a venue where past chairs have chosen to signal framework-level shifts, even a speech expected to stay high-level will be parsed line by line.