Iran fired ballistic missiles at American military bases in Jordan late on July 28, in what appeared to be the first time Tehran initiated an attack on US targets since the war began in late February.

The Islamic Republic has consistently characterized its military campaign as a war of resistance and framed its actions as purely defensive. However, the strike on Jordan — where three American soldiers were killed earlier this month — may signal a meaningful shift in strategy, according to regional experts.

Iran's leadership "wants to demonstrate strength, and these military actions can be understood in that context," Meysam Badamchi, an Iran expert and senior researcher at Charles University in Prague, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

US President Donald Trump issued a sharp warning to Iran, vowing retaliation. "We'll be hitting them hard. They're going to get a beating," a Fox News correspondent quoted Trump as saying during a brief interview on July 29.

The attack ended a lull in hostilities that had held since July 24. During the preceding two weeks, the United States had conducted daily air strikes on Iran, prompting Iranian retaliation against American bases positioned across the Middle East. The renewed fighting effectively dismantled an interim peace deal signed in June — the second such agreement to collapse since the conflict erupted in late February, underscoring the fragility of diplomatic efforts in the region.

US Central Command confirmed on July 28 that it intercepted multiple ballistic missiles launched by Iran toward American forces in the region, describing the incident as "an attempted surprise attack." Jordan reported on July 29 that it had intercepted and downed five Iranian missiles.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces that operates independently of Iran's conventional military and reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a statement claiming its forces "targeted a US airbase and the US Central Command Centre in Jordan with several ballistic missiles." The IRGC described the strike as a response to "the aggressive actions" of the United States, without providing further details.

Warning to the United States

The July 28 strike may represent a significant evolution in Iran's military doctrine, with Tehran now demonstrating a willingness to launch preemptive attacks to deter Washington.

"The attack therefore appears to have been a warning to the United States not to join or initiate a new military campaign against Iran," Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, wrote on social media.

The Iranian missile launch came just hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who advocates continuing the war against Tehran — visited Washington for talks with Trump. The visit coincided with the US president weighing his options on Iran.

Trump told Axios on July 23 that he was seriously considering "a massive attack" on Iran. He has since moderated that stance, stating on July 27 that a new diplomatic round with Iran could yield a breakthrough.

Iran has denied engaging in negotiations with US officials and has shown no willingness to offer new concessions regarding its effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery through which roughly one-fifth of global daily oil consumption normally transits — or its contested nuclear program.

The Islamic Republic appears to be in no hurry to resume peace talks, and its recent military actions suggest a tactical pivot, analysts noted.

"The current leadership in Iran seeks to dictate the pace of the confrontation and not merely respond to decisions made in Washington," Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on social media.

"From its perspective, an offensive initiative is a way to prove that Iran still holds the strategic initiative," Citrinowicz added. "In Tehran, they identify the American hesitation as a weakness and a lack of willingness to be dragged into a broad war. The Iranian assessment is that applying additional pressure will precisely test Washington's resolve and influence decision-making in the White House."

Fears of a Widening War

Within hours of Iran's attack on US bases in Jordan, the United States and its ally Saudi Arabia launched joint air strikes against Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq — the first US military operation in the Middle East since July 24.

Washington and Riyadh stated that the strikes were in response to drone attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, which had been launched from Iraqi territory in recent days.

Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of predominantly pro-Iranian militias that has been nominally integrated into the Iraqi Army since 2016, reported that at least 20 of its members were killed in the operation. The government in Baghdad condemned the US-Saudi assault.

The reciprocal strikes by Iran and the United States have intensified concerns about a broader regional conflict and potential disruption to international energy markets, where the simultaneous threat to two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints — the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea shipping lane — threatens supply routes that collectively handle a substantial share of seaborne crude.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen opened a new front last week by targeting oil facilities and striking oil tankers in the Red Sea as part of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. This development threatens to create a second chokepoint for global oil supplies, compounding the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Badamchi of Charles University said the renewed hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia suggest "we're returning to the situation that existed before the Iran-Saudi rapprochement."

In 2023, the two regional rivals restored diplomatic relations in a China-brokered agreement following years of tension that had fueled fears of a full-scale conflict in the region.

By RFE/RL