Republicans are preparing to cast President Donald Trump as the fall guy as they brace for a wipeout in November's midterm elections, according to a Fox News analysis by political analyst Mark Halperin. The stakes are concrete: the vote falls halfway through Trump's term, with every House seat and roughly a third of the Senate on the ballot, and since World War II the president's party has lost House seats in all but two midterm elections.

Writing in his [Fox News opinion columnhttps://www.foxnews.com/opinion/mark-halperin-republicans-bracing-wipeout-heres-who-theyll-blame-happens), Halperin said GOP operatives have already begun debating who would bear responsibility for what could be a disastrous election. "The simplest argument is also the hardest to refute," he wrote. "One man controls the party, and his name is Trump."

Halperin argued that a defeat at the polls would amount to an indictment of the president, citing his underwater approval ratings, his economic policies, his foreign-policy decisions, and his inability to stay focused on the issues that matter most to voters. Advisers, he suggested, could leave Trump out in the cold by insisting they had little power to change his behavior.

He framed the party's dilemma against a backdrop of voters struggling with a higher cost of living while Trump focuses on White House renovations and foreign wars, all while his family business is raking in billions. "A voter worried about groceries sees a president worried about building names," he wrote.

Halperin also pointed to Trump's cheerleading for AI data centers, arguing the stance is alienating voters who are facing rising electricity bills. The ongoing conflict with Iran, he noted, has further complicated the GOP's economic message, as most voters simply want to pay their bills and are not invested in the war efforts.

Republican congressional leaders would not escape blame either, Halperin predicted. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune could be accused of failing to deliver achievements voters can identify with and of having no legislative accomplishments to sell. Party consultants, he argued, are likely to point fingers over messaging without much to work with beyond well-funded, played-out attacks. Candidates, meanwhile, face a Trump gamble: staying too close to the president or distancing themselves from him could each lead to their downfall.

Public polling underscores the challenge. A September Fox News poll put Trump's approval at 39%, while 61% disapproved. In the same survey, Democrats held a seven-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, the standard survey question asking which party voters would back in their own House district. Because the majority party controls committee chairmanships and sets the legislative agenda, the November outcome will help determine how much of the administration's program can advance and how aggressively Congress exercises its oversight powers.

All signs point to Republicans preparing for an increasingly difficult election despite their well-funded campaigns. According to a report by the Washington Post on Thursday, groups that support the GOP are shifting their resources away from races previously seen as winnable and toward protecting seats that are currently held by Republicans. Part of that shift involves attempting to strengthen positions in states Trump won comfortably in 2024.

Separately, Axios reported on Wednesday that House Republicans are looking at the possibility of making leadership changes should they lose their majority. Johnson has indicated he may want to stay as head of the conference, which could spark a contest between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. A Republican told Axios that members of Congress were already competing for the minority leader position before Election Day.

Halperin warned that Democrats might also rebel against their own leaders if their performance does not meet expectations. Still, he concluded that Trump's control of the Republican Party makes him the most obvious person to be targeted if the feared Republican defeat occurs. Between now and Election Day, follow-up polling, further signs of the resource pullbacks the Washington Post described, and any public moves by would-be leadership rivals are the most concrete markers of whether the intraparty blame debate Halperin describes stays private or moves into the open.