The southwest monsoon, known locally as the habagat, is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the western Philippines over the next four days, although the overall risk of significant disruptions remains low, the state weather bureau said on Monday.

In a forecast issued at 3 p.m. on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Occidental Mindoro, Palawan and Antique faced a minimal likelihood of rain-related impacts from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. The risk level is expected to increase slightly on Sept. 3, when Occidental Mindoro may experience minor impacts from prolonged rainfall.

PAGASA also identified Palawan, Antique, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras and Negros Occidental as areas that could experience minimal impacts on Sept. 3.

The forecast showed a low likelihood of significant weather-related disruptions from Monday through Wednesday. By Thursday, the likelihood rises to a medium level in some affected areas, though the highest projected impact remains in the "minor" category.

According to PAGASA, short-term disruptions to classes, work and business activities could occur in affected areas. Travelers may also face delays as road and rail transport services face possible interruptions.

The weather bureau warned that houses and buildings in low-lying and flood-prone areas could experience slight to moderate flooding, with floodwaters potentially entering some structures. The warning comes on top of damage already left by weeks of monsoon-enhanced rains and a succession of tropical cyclones, meaning saturated ground and clogged waterways in many areas could heighten flood risks from additional rainfall.

Agriculture may also be affected, particularly crops in critical growth stages. Some aquaculture facilities and agricultural equipment could sustain damage from heavy rains, PAGASA said. The latest forecast adds pressure on the farm sector after the recent storms already caused P2.32 billion in agricultural losses.

In the health and safety sector, the agency said a limited number of health facilities might be affected, while minor injuries and threats to life remain possible in vulnerable areas.

Power and telecommunication services could also experience interruptions, with the agency warning of potential disruptions to consumer electricity connections and communication networks.

PAGASA advised local government units and residents in affected provinces to monitor advisories and take precautionary measures against flooding and other rain-induced hazards.

Death Toll Rises to 33

Meanwhile, the death toll from the enhanced southwest monsoon and Tropical Cyclones Luis, Kujira and Gaenari rose to 33, while the number of affected people climbed to 8.8 million nationwide, the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) said.

The latest fatality was recorded in Caloocan City due to drowning, OCD Disaster Preparedness Service Director Vicente Gregorio B. Tomas told a press briefing.

The affected population reached 8.8 million people from 2.5 million families across the Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Calabarzon, the National Capital Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region and Mimaropa.

More than 165,000 people were staying in 1,365 evacuation centers.

OCD Assistant Secretary Leo L. Quintilla said the Department of Social Welfare and Development had distributed at least 2.3 million family food boxes to local government units in affected areas and still had 3.5 million boxes available for replenishment and augmentation.

Humanitarian assistance provided to affected communities has reached P1.77 billion, according to the OCD.

The agency said 117 areas remained under a state of calamity, a declaration that allows local governments to tap emergency funds and freeze prices of basic goods. Infrastructure damage was estimated at P6.12 billion, while agricultural losses reached P2.32 billion.

More than 3,300 houses were damaged, including 405 that were destroyed and nearly 3,000 that sustained partial damage.

Government agencies have continued clearing operations, while search-and-rescue teams remained deployed or on standby. In Metro Manila, all 73 pumping stations remained operational as authorities cleared waterways clogged by debris and silt left by recent flooding. — Norman P. Aquino and Edg Adrian A. Eva