By Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors

The weekly review below sorts the latest developments in gold and the broader precious metals complex into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for readers tracking the sector.

Strengths

Silver was the best-performing precious metal of the past week, gaining 2.07%. Both gold and silver advanced after a series of economic releases pointed to easing inflation: initial jobless claims held steady, the producer price index (PPI), which tracks the prices received by producers, came in weaker than expected, and retail sales surprisingly declined 0.6% last Friday against expectations for a 0.1% increase. The data could give the Federal Reserve another reason to hold off on raising interest rates at its September 16 meeting. Rate expectations matter for gold because the metal generates no income, so the level of interest rates affects the relative appeal of holding it versus yield-bearing assets.

Official-sector demand remained prominent. China purchased 640,000 ounces of gold in July, reports Canaccord, up from 480,000 ounces in June and the highest monthly amount since October 2023. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has bought 1.93 million ounces over the past seven months — more than double its purchases for all of 2025. Separately, the Bank of Korea made its first gold-linked investment in 13 years, holding approximately $250 million in SPDR Gold Shares, one of the world’s largest gold-backed ETFs, at the end of the second quarter, highlighting growing demand for gold exposure among global reserve managers. Central banks have ranked among the biggest buyers of gold in recent years, making their purchase patterns a closely watched barometer of official-sector demand.

ETF flows reinforced the picture. Exchange-traded funds give investors gold exposure without physical delivery, making their flows a widely followed proxy for investment demand. According to BMO, gold ETF inflows reached $3.3 billion, the strongest level since April, with broad-based buying led by Europe ($1.1 billion), North America ($1.08 billion) and China ($810 million). The inflows have continued: gold ETFs recorded a seventh consecutive day of net buying on Thursday, the longest streak since April 21, while total holdings rose to 97.3 million ounces, the highest level since June 23.

Weaknesses

Palladium was the worst-performing precious metal of the past week, down 4.34%, and platinum also declined amid weaker economic data. Both metals rely heavily on demand from the automotive sector, where they are used in catalytic converters, leaving them sensitive to signs of weaker economic activity.

Barrick reached an agreement with Newmont on their Nevada joint venture, with Newmont paying Barrick $1.95 billion as both companies contribute previously excluded properties, clearing the way for Barrick’s planned North American IPO. The venture, Nevada Gold Mines, was formed in 2019 and ranks among the world’s largest gold-mining complexes. Bloomberg Intelligence, however, views the $1.95 billion valuation of Barrick’s Fourmile project as potentially low given the asset’s quality. For the week, Barrick’s shares fell more than 5%, while Newmont gained 4%.

Pan American Silver reported adjusted EPS of $0.73, below CIBC’s estimate of $0.83 and the consensus estimate of $0.87. The miss was driven primarily by higher-than-expected operating costs at La Colorada and increased withholding tax expenses, sending the shares down 7.5% for the week.

Elliott Investment Management, which controls approximately 5.6% of Northern Star Resources, the Australia-listed gold producer, criticized the company’s proposed Board “renewal” process in a statement issued in response to Northern Star’s August 13 letter. Elliott argued that the process gives incumbent directors control over who joins the Board, calling it “entrenchment” rather than genuine renewal.

Opportunities

Fortuna Mining agreed to acquire the Bambadji gold exploration project in Senegal from Barrick Mining and IAMGOLD for $200 million in cash, according to Bloomberg. Fortuna will pay $130.4 million to Barrick and $69.7 million to IAMGOLD, expanding its exploration portfolio and gold exposure in West Africa.

Newmont also entered into an earn-in agreement with Headwater Gold for the Jupiter Project, a potentially district-scale epithermal gold project in Nevada’s southern Walker Lane belt. Under an earn-in structure, a larger company funds exploration on a smaller company’s project to gradually earn an ownership stake.

In the markets, CME Group plans to launch 24/7 trading for its 100-ounce silver futures contract starting September 11, pending regulatory approval, according to Bloomberg. The move targets growing retail demand for around-the-clock access to precious metals — futures markets have traditionally closed over weekends and for brief daily maintenance windows — and could broaden market participation and liquidity. Meanwhile, Nomura’s international wealth management business launched a physical gold trading platform in Singapore, offering large gold bars to wealth clients, according to Bloomberg.

On the charts, gold has cleared its first key resistance level at $4,300 — a zone where selling pressure has previously emerged — according to technical analysts, with $4,500 now the next major threshold. A sustained move above $4,500 could signal a bullish breakout and reverse the recent bearish trend, the analysts say.

Threats

Bloomberg’s MLIV blog noted that silver appears overvalued relative to gold after surging 14% in August, compared with gold’s 9% gain. The rapid rally suggests silver could be approaching a short-term peak.

According to RBC, G Mining reiterated its production targets but raised its annual cost guidance by 7%, reflecting continued cost pressures. The increase is being driven by a stronger Brazilian real — which raises the U.S.-dollar cost of local-currency expenses at a miner whose gold revenue is priced in dollars — labor cost inflation, higher maintenance spending and a higher assumed gold price of $4,300 per ounce, up from $4,000 previously. Rising costs are beginning to weigh on earnings growth.

Geopolitics presents another risk. Russia has secured continued access to two key military bases in Syria under an agreement with the country’s new leadership, including Hmeimim airfield, which will remain a transit hub for Kremlin operations in Africa, according to Bloomberg. The agreement preserves Russia’s strategic reach into the continent and could strengthen its influence in gold-rich West Africa, where countries such as Ghana, Mali and Burkina Faso rank among Africa’s largest gold producers, potentially increasing geopolitical and regulatory risks for Western mining companies operating in the region.

About the Author

Frank Holmes is the CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes purchased a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors in 1989 and became the firm’s chief investment officer in 1999. In 2006, he was selected mining fund manager of the year by the Mining Journal, and in 2011 he was named a U.S. Metals and Mining “TopGun” by Brendan Wood International. In 2016, Mr. Holmes and portfolio manager Ralph Aldis received the award for Best Americas Based Fund Manager from the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing. More than 30,000 subscribers follow his weekly commentary in the award-winning Investor Alert newsletter, which is read in over 180 countries.

Under his guidance, the company’s mutual funds have received recognition from Lipper and Morningstar, two trusted independent financial authorities. In 2015, Mr. Holmes led the company into the exchange-traded fund (ETF) business with the launch of the U.S. Global Jets ETF, which invests in the global airline sector. In 2017, U.S. Global Investors made a strategic investment in HIVE Blockchain Technologies, listed in Toronto, and Mr. Holmes was appointed non-executive Chairman of the Board.

Mr. Holmes was awarded the Huron Medal of Distinction from Huron University College in 2013, his alma mater for the class of 1978. The award recognizes individuals whose life achievements set an example of excellence and reflect Huron’s arts and social sciences missions. A native of Toronto, Mr. Holmes is a graduate of the University of Western Ontario with a bachelor’s degree in economics and a former president and chairman of the Toronto Society of the Investment Dealers Association.

A much-sought-after keynote speaker at national and international investment conferences, Mr. Holmes has spoken at the Investing in African Mining Indaba conference, the Denver Gold Group’s European Gold Forum and numerous Money Show events, and has sat on panels with prominent industry leaders including the editor of Barron’s. He continues to be invited as a keynote speaker at conferences throughout the U.S., Canada and overseas.

Mr. Holmes is a regular commentator on the financial television networks CNBC, Bloomberg, BNN and Fox Business, and has been profiled by Fortune as well as The Financial Times. His thoughts on gold are captured each week on a program called Gold Game Film in collaboration with Kitco News and TheStreet.com. Mr. Holmes was also the feature spread in Barron’s during the commodity rally at the start of 2004. He is a regular contributor to Forbes, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha and the Wall Street Journal’s Experts Corner.

Frank Holmes has been appointed non-executive chairman of the Board of Directors of HIVE Blockchain Technologies. Both Mr. Holmes and U.S. Global Investors own shares of HIVE, directly and indirectly. This interview should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product.