EIA Reports 4.405 Million-Barrel Rise in US Crude Inventories as Fuel Stocks Also Miss Forecasts
Key Takeaways
- •US crude inventories increased by 4.405 million barrels, well above the expected 200,000-barrel build though far smaller than the prior week's 17.423 million-barrel rise.
- •Gasoline stocks rose 688,000 barrels against expectations of a 1.504 million-barrel draw, while distillate inventories fell 1.530 million barrels, exceeding the forecast decline.
- •US imports of Saudi crude collapsed by 91%, and recent EIA data shows Canadian barrels account for roughly two-thirds of US crude imports.
- •The drop in Saudi flows stems from conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea threats that have forced Saudi crude tankers to change course.
- •WTI has traded in a tight range since Monday's spike after Trump cast doubt on a US-Iran deal, nearly erasing the decline that began when he called off planned strikes on Iran on August 3.
Prior was +17.423M
Gasoline +0.688M vs -1.504M expected
Prior was -0.968M
Distillates -1.530M vs -0.982M expected
Prior was -0.010M
US crude oil inventories rose by 4.405 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 200,000-barrel increase. The build was much smaller than the previous week’s 17.423 million-barrel increase, but it still indicated continued accumulation in crude stocks and a relatively loose US supply-demand balance. The report also landed alongside weaker-than-expected product data, which matters because traders often look beyond the crude headline to gauge whether refiners are drawing on or rebuilding fuel inventories.
Gasoline inventories increased by 688,000 barrels, versus expectations for a 1.504 million-barrel draw, after a prior decline of 968,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 1.530 million barrels, slightly more than the expected 982,000-barrel draw, following a prior decline of 10,000 barrels. That mix leaves the weekly release pointing to softer gasoline demand than forecast, even as distillate inventories continued to tighten.
One of the most notable developments was a 91% collapse in US imports of Saudi crude. The US has increasingly relied on alternative suppliers, while Canada remains by far its largest source of imported crude. Recent EIA data showed that Canadian barrels accounted for roughly two-thirds of US crude imports, while imports from Saudi Arabia and other sources have become much smaller. For market watchers, that shift is a reminder that US supply dynamics are being shaped not only by domestic production and refinery runs, but also by changing import flows from major overseas suppliers.
The decline in Saudi flows stems from severe disruption to Middle Eastern shipping routes. Conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Saudi shipments through the Red Sea have already forced Saudi crude tankers to change course.
At the headline level, the inventory report is bearish. In practice, however, inventory data is rarely the main driver of oil prices, which are generally shaped more by global growth expectations, OPEC decisions, and geopolitical events.
WTI crude oil has been trading in a tight range since Monday’s spike after Trump cast doubt on a US-Iran deal. The market has been grinding higher since the selloff that followed US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comment on August 4, when he said a deal with Iran was imminent. WTI has almost erased the entire drop that began after Trump called off the planned strikes on Iran on August 3.
