By Hubert Moolman | Originally published on SilverSeek

Independent gold and silver analyst Hubert Moolman argues that the Dow is potentially in a "danger zone" — close to a peak, though it could still go higher for at least 3 months — while silver's most significant highs are likely still ahead.

His argument is built on the Dow/Gold ratio — the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the U.S. dollar price of an ounce of gold — a long-standing gauge of whether financial assets or hard assets are in favor. Historically the ratio has swung in long arcs: it peaked with equities in 1966 and again in 1999, collapsed toward parity with gold in early 1980, and fell steeply through the 2000s as gold rose. Moolman's method is fractal and cycle analysis, a niche approach that extrapolates timing from a small number of historical episodes rather than from mainstream valuation or earnings models.

Summary of the analysis:

• The Dow is potentially in a danger zone, close to a peak, but could still go higher for at least 3 months.
• Silver will likely not peak before the Dow does.
• Silver could potentially make a significant peak within 1 year from now.
• Silver could potentially make an even higher peak between 2032 and 2034.
• Moolman continues to hold a bullish view on silver.

Dow Nominal Peaks Follow Dow/Gold Ratio Peaks

Since 1966, the Dow has made a new nominal all-time high after every significant Dow/Gold ratio peak, Moolman notes. What is remarkable, he writes, is that these new nominal all-time high peaks came within 8.12 years of the corresponding Dow/Gold ratio peaks.

The first significant new nominal Dow peak occurred in January 1973, about 7 years after the Dow/Gold ratio peak of January 1966. The second new nominal Dow peak occurred in October 2007, about 8.12 years after the Dow/Gold ratio peak of August 1999. Even the Dow's nominal peak of March 1937 — though not a new high — came about 7.5 years after the September 1929 Dow/Gold ratio peak.

About 7.87 years have now passed since the latest Dow/Gold ratio peak, which occurred in October 2018. Since that peak, both the Dow and gold have gone on to set fresh nominal highs, but gold's record-setting climb since late 2023 has pulled the ratio well below its 2018 level — the configuration Moolman treats as the setup for an eventual Dow nominal top. Based on these past patterns, Moolman writes, the Dow is in the danger zone and could be at or near a peak. There are no guarantees, but this possibility should not be ignored, he cautions.

Silver Peaks Relative to Dow/Gold Ratio Peaks

Moolman has previously written about the relationship between silver peaks and Dow/Gold ratio peaks, shown in the top chart of his graphic.

The silver peak of February 1974 came about 8 years after the January 1966 Dow/Gold ratio peak, and about 1 year after the nominal Dow peak of January 1973. The silver peak of March 2008 came about 8.5 years after the August 1999 Dow/Gold ratio peak — that was 5 months after the nominal Dow peak of October 2007, and months before the 2008 financial crisis deepened in the autumn of that year.

If the trend since 1966 continues, Moolman writes, it is very likely that the Dow will peak before silver does, possibly between 5 and 12 months before.

If silver and the Dow instead follow the 1937 path, the Dow would only peak about 2 years after a silver peak. In that case, the silver peak might already be in — which Moolman considers unlikely, since he expects a much higher peak than the January 2026 top (more detail in his premium updates). The 1937 path is also unlikely, he adds, because that Dow nominal high was lower than the 1929 one.

Nominal Dow Peaks and Silver Peaks

Another important issue Moolman has previously pointed out is that there also appears to be a relationship between significant nominal Dow peaks and significant silver peaks — noting that these peaks are not necessarily all pointed out on the chart.

The 1929 Dow nominal peak, the all-time high at that time, occurred at the same time as the Dow/Gold ratio peak. Silver made a peak during the Great Depression about 5.83 years after that 1929 Dow nominal peak.

The January 1973 Dow nominal all-time high was the peak of the cycle since the post-Great Depression low; silver peaked about 7 years after that January 1973 peak.

The January 2000 Dow nominal all-time high was also a very significant peak; silver peaked about 8.16 years after it.

In a similar manner to the three cases above, Moolman suggests, silver could potentially peak between 5.83 and 8.16 years after the coming Dow nominal all-time high. If that Dow all-time high occurs this year, silver could potentially make a significant peak from around 2032 to about 2034.

Worth weighing: the pattern Moolman extrapolates rests on three anchor observations across roughly seven decades — 1929, 1973 and 2000 — and long-cycle arguments of this kind are inherently sensitive to small samples. Within his framework, the milestones that matter are whether the Dow prints a fresh nominal all-time high and when it does so, since both of his silver timelines — a significant peak within roughly a year, or a larger one between 2032 and 2034 — hinge on the date of that Dow top, as does the behavior of the Dow/Gold ratio afterward.

Moolman maintains that silver has much higher to go, as illustrated on this chart.

Hubert Moolman is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver. He is the owner of HGM and Associates and HGM Research, and his work is regularly published in premier gold and silver publications including Kitco.com, GoldSeek.com, SilverSeek.com, Mineweb.com, Resourceinvestor.com and Seekingalpha.com.