The Republican primary for Florida governor is scheduled for August 18, when registered Republican voters will select their party's nominee to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. The race has been marked by sharp personal attacks, policy reversals, and legal disputes among the leading candidates.

U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the polls, running at least 40 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitor. Depending on the survey, that position is contested by either Lt. Gov. Jay Collins or James Fishback, a candidate who identifies himself as a businessman. The full Republican field also includes a former speaker of the Florida House, a retired firefighter, an Auntie Anne's pretzel franchise operator, and a former computer repair shop owner with multiple arrests for domestic abuse and child neglect.

Donalds has received the endorsement of President Donald Trump — a significant advantage in a Republican primary. Trump's endorsement proved decisive in Texas, where Ken Paxton, impeached by his own party, defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. In the same cycle, Democratic candidate James Talaricio, a Presbyterian seminarian, has been gaining ground in Texas polls, though no Democrat has won statewide office there in decades.

Donalds Campaign Stumbles

Donalds recently faced public ridicule over his defense of Trump regarding the so-called Epstein "Birthday Book," which allegedly bears Trump's signature on an image of a female torso. Donalds insisted the signature was not authentic, stating he had witnessed Trump signing documents on numerous occasions and that the signature in question did not match. The signature was subsequently reported as genuine.

Separately, while promoting an education initiative called "Read to Succeed" on Instagram, Donalds appeared before a backdrop sign misspelled as "Achieveability." The incident drew widespread criticism online, with one social media commenter asking: "Is his staff just stupid, or do they hate him?"

Data Center Policy Shifts

Donalds has also adjusted his stance on AI data centers, a flashpoint issue as tech companies nationwide race to build infrastructure powering artificial intelligence and communities from Virginia to Oregon push back over strain on local water supplies and power grids. Trump has referred to data centers as "money machines," and Donalds was previously supportive of their expansion. However, a recent poll found that 68% of Florida residents oppose having a data center near their community. Donalds has since expressed "concerns" and says he supports local governments' authority to regulate the facilities. He has filed a bill in Congress that would require data centers to source water and electricity from private providers or generate their own.

The proposal is unlikely to advance in the current legislative session. According to Politico, Donalds has received hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from tech executives and data center developers.

Fishback's Campaign Controversies

James Fishback, who also expresses reservations about AI data centers, has accused Donalds of wanting to build facilities on "pristine land." Fishback is polling in single to low double digits and has sought to draw attention through provocative rhetoric. He has referred to Donalds as a "slave," "Byrone," and "AIPAC Shakur." The New Republic reported that Fishback suggested a Black man should be "lynched" after the individual asked him uncomfortable questions about alleged sexual contact with an underage girl.

Fishback has also been associated with white supremacist Nick Fuentes, who has stated: "Jews are running society. Women need to shut the [expletive] up. Blacks need to be imprisoned for the most part."

On May 23, Fishback married Valeria Quimby. The Miami New Times reported on the sudden nature of the marriage, noting that just months earlier Fishback had publicly presented a different girlfriend, Francesca Raine, also known as "Crypto Barbie." Raine has accused Fishback of leaving her for "some random girl after political pressure."

Residency Challenge

A more serious challenge to Fishback's candidacy emerged over his Florida residency. In 2020, Fishback lived and voted in Washington, D.C. Florida law requires gubernatorial candidates to have been state residents for seven years prior to running. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins filed a lawsuit seeking to remove Fishback from the ballot.

A Leon County judge ruled that Fishback could remain on the ballot, stating: "This Court will not be deciding the race between the Lieutenant Governor and Mr. Fishback. That will be in the very sound hands of the voters." Fishback described the ruling as a victory over "lawfare" by Collins and Donalds. Collins' lawyer responded: "Who wants to vote for a candidate whose own sworn testimony is he committed mortgage fraud and doesn't understand how the law works when it comes to election integrity and paying state income taxes?" The residency question, though unresolved on the merits, may continue to shadow Fishback if he advances to the general election.

Jay Collins' Bid

Jay Collins, a decorated former Green Beret and staunch opponent of abortion, authored legislation that would have banned Pride flags at government buildings while permitting the Confederate battle flag. The bill was later withdrawn. Collins shares Donalds' concerns about data center water and energy consumption but opposes moratoriums, calling them "not the American way." More than 20 Florida localities have nonetheless imposed such moratoriums. Collins' campaign slogan is "Stop the Bullsh!t."

Despite Donalds' campaign missteps and Fishback's controversies, Collins has not gained significant ground in the polls.

DeSantis Withholds Endorsement

DeSantis, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term, has not endorsed a successor. His relationship with Donalds deteriorated after Donalds endorsed Trump for the 2024 presidential race ahead of DeSantis' own expected candidacy. DeSantis subsequently refused to take Donalds' calls and privately told Trump that Donalds was "unfit" to serve as Florida's governor.

DeSantis has publicly criticized Donalds' record, stating: "You've got a guy like Byron, he just hasn't been a part of any of the victories that we've had here over the left over these last years. He's just not been a part of it." DeSantis has not endorsed Collins, his own lieutenant governor, nor has he commented on Fishback's candidacy.

A Tallahassee political insider observed: "Ron is leaving without a lot of friends." DeSantis could still influence the race with an endorsement, though the leading candidates may fare better without his involvement.