Prediction-market traders sharply increased the implied odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in the past 24 hours, one day before the central bank begins its two-day July meeting.

The probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged has fallen sharply across major prediction markets. The odds of a quarter-point rate increase rose by nearly 10 percentage points on Polymarket and by about 8 percentage points on Myriad. Fed-funds futures put the probability of an increase at 38.8% as of Monday afternoon, according to the source data cited in the report.

On Polymarket, a prediction market where contract prices function as crowd-implied probabilities, the “no change” outcome dropped 8.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours to 73.25%. The market-implied chance of a 25-basis-point increase rose 9.7 percentage points to 26.65%. The market had recorded $100.83 million in overall trading volume, including $5.78 million over the prior 24 hours.

Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt parent company Dastan, showed a similar distribution. It displayed a 74% probability for “no change” and a 27% probability for an increase. On Myriad, the odds of “no change” declined by 9% over the past day, while the odds of a rate hike climbed by 8%.

Professional rate traders also showed elevated expectations for a possible move. Fed-funds futures—contracts used to price expectations for the Fed’s next policy decision—put the chance of an increase at 37.6% on Monday afternoon, according to the article. The gap between an unchanged-rate base case and a material probability of a hike shows how closely traders are parsing the Fed’s inflation language and near-term policy signals before the decision.

A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. A 25-basis-point hike would raise the Fed’s current target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. When the Fed raises interest rates, borrowing generally becomes more expensive, which tends to slow spending and investment and can pressure risk assets. When it lowers rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, which can encourage spending and investment. Lower rates have typically been viewed as favorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin and technology stocks.

The Fed kept rates unchanged in June and warned that inflation remained elevated. Officials’ median projection placed the year-end rate at 3.8%. June inflation later cooled to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, giving policymakers a reason to wait.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet July 28-29 and release its interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. Eastern time on July 29. The statement accompanying that decision will be the next formal signal of whether officials still view inflation risks as high enough to justify tighter policy or prefer to hold rates steady while assessing incoming data.