NewsMacroFed policymakers leave rates unchanged amid elevated uncertainty

Fed policymakers leave rates unchanged amid elevated uncertainty

Author: Fox Business Markets·

Key Takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve left its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
  • The FOMC said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite uncertainty tied in part to the conflict in the Middle East.
  • Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, with officials pointing to supply shocks and higher energy prices.
  • Three policymakers dissented and voted for a 25-basis-point rate increase.
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank remains committed to 2% inflation and is reviewing its policy framework and data approach.
Fed policymakers leave rates unchanged amid elevated uncertainty

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced that it will hold interest rates steady as policymakers weighed elevated inflation and uncertainty tied in part to the war in Iran, underscoring how the central bank is balancing still-solid growth with price pressures that remain above target.

Fed officials voted 9-3 to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision followed the central bank's choices to hold rates steady in January, March, April and June, after three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October and December to end last year.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's panel responsible for monetary policy decisions, said that "economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East."

Policymakers said inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, in part because of supply shocks driving higher prices in sectors such as energy, and said they would deliver price stability. The FOMC also noted that job growth is keeping pace with the workforce and that the unemployment rate has changed little, a combination that gives officials room to stay patient even as they continue to watch for signs that higher prices are broadening beyond energy and other supply-driven categories.

Three FOMC members dissented from the decision: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Each voted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.

The decision marked only the second meeting under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has removed forward guidance from the FOMC's post-meeting statements.

In his opening remarks, Warsh said the committee viewed the decision to hold rates steady as "especially prudent at these uncertain times." He also told households, businesses and market participants that the Fed does not have a soft or implicit inflation target and remains focused on achieving 2% inflation.

"Not one of my FOMC colleagues is under any illusion, we have begun a new chapter, and we understand that the five-plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks, or by a single month of modest price decreases. This Fed will not waver. Our credibility rests on performing our duties and delivering on our responsibilities," Warsh said.

Asked about the three dissents, Warsh said, "I asked for a good family fight, and I got one. That's the designed feature."

"There was a lot of agreement that I heard that we have the powers, the tools, also the authority to deliver stable prices. No walking back from our responsibilities. There was a large majority support for the decision we made in the room," he said. "There was nothing inertial about that discussion, it was an active, robust discussion about what's in the full range of what we can do and might want to do in the period ahead."

"The path to central bank heaven requires delivering on our remit. These days, that means delivering on price stability. I wouldn't measure that path on 42 days or any one particular meeting," Warsh said. "And I came out of that meeting even more confident that this is the right team to win the battle against high inflation."

FOX Business' Edward Lawrence asked Warsh about the case for a pause, and the Fed chair said he would instead describe it as "a rigorous review of the economic situation" that included the "big hard questions" facing the central bank.

When asked about his first speech at the Jackson Hole monetary policy conference next month, Warsh said he has not yet begun planning the remarks, but noted that such speeches have historically been used to help frame policy. He said he wants to "frame the big questions" in monetary policy rather than focus on narrower decisions.

Warsh was also asked about the Fed's 2% inflation target and which measures policymakers will rely on. He said the Fed's annual strategy document points to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index as the "objective function there." He said the Fed is sticking with that approach, although the internal reviews he has initiated could change that strategy next year.

He added that he is looking at a broader set of inflation data and said he pays attention to the contributions to PCE from the consumer price index (CPI) and other economic indicators, adding that "my lens is broader than that, even though the remit is quite narrow."

Asked whether the inflation data suggests the Fed should tighten policy by raising rates, Warsh said: "This FOMC, this board, has been in business for eight and a half weeks. The impatience that households and businesses feel have been going for 63 months. We are on the job. We will deliver. We are focused like a laser on making sure we can do it. But the suggestion that we're going to be able to do it with our magic wand is one I want to disabuse you and everyone else of."