Markets Consolidate Ahead of US NFP Report as Eurozone Retail Sales Fall 0.7%
Key Takeaways
- •European markets consolidated in a quiet session on 6 November, with attention centred on the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report that shapes Federal Reserve policy expectations.
- •Eurozone retail sales fell 0.7% month-on-month in September, well short of the forecast 0.1% decline, with Germany recording the largest drop at 2.0% and the figures signalling weakening consumer demand without altering the ECB's policy outlook.
- •Fed official Williams said the US economy remains remarkably resilient with a stable labour market and indicated no urgency to adjust interest rates, favouring a wait-and-see stance as more data is gathered.
- •Iran's deputy security chief said Tehran requires concrete steps from Washington rather than written assurances before negotiations can resume, with the standoff carrying the risk of renewed US military operations while keeping the downside in oil limited.
- •In market action, WTI crude rose 0.43% to $90.92, gold fell 0.54% to $4,064, the S&P 500 gained 0.29% to 7,405, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.86%, and Bitcoin edged up 0.14% to $76,072.
European markets consolidated in a quiet session on Friday (6 November), with limited news flow and few data releases as traders looked ahead to the United States nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. The NFP release, the monthly read on US hiring and unemployment, is among the most closely watched data points on the economic calendar because it shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy, making it the focal point of an otherwise thin session.
Market snapshot
- WTI crude oil: up 0.43% at $90.92
- Gold: down 0.54% at $4,064
- Currencies: USD leads, NZD lags
- S&P 500: up 0.29% at 7,405
- US 10-year Treasury yield: up 2 basis points at 4.86%
- Bitcoin: up 0.14% at $76,072
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Eurozone retail sales miss forecasts
The session's only data highlight was the Eurozone retail sales report. Retail sales fell 0.7% month-on-month in September, missing forecasts of a 0.1% decline, while annual growth slowed to 0.4% from 0.8%. The drop was driven mainly by non-food products, although sales of food, drinks and tobacco also weakened. Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, recorded the largest monthly decline, with sales down 2.0%.
Retail sales serve as a direct gauge of household spending on goods, so the shortfall against forecasts offers a timely read on the state of euro-area consumption. The figures point to weakening consumer demand amid elevated energy prices and higher interest rates. They do not, however, change the European Central Bank's policy outlook, as the central bank remains primarily focused on inflation. Upcoming monthly prints will show whether September's weakness was a one-off or part of a broader softening in spending.
Fed's Williams: US economy remarkably resilient
Federal Reserve official Williams described the US economy as remarkably resilient, with stronger growth and a stable labour market. He noted that tariff-related inflation pressures have largely passed through, that energy costs are evolving as expected, and that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored, with wage growth consistent with the Fed's 2% target. Williams appeared comfortable with the current economic backdrop, saw no urgency to adjust interest rates and favoured a wait-and-see approach as the Fed gathers more information. That patience also frames the market's focus on the NFP report: with policy on hold pending additional data, the US jobs release is the next scheduled input into the Fed's economic assessment.
Iran questions US diplomatic commitments
The Deputy Head of Iran's top security body told state television that Tehran remains sceptical of US diplomatic commitments, insisting that written assurances are not enough and that Washington must take concrete steps before negotiations can resume. Iran is demanding practical evidence of US intentions rather than relying on promises.
The report suggested that Iran appears to be trying to capitalise on the results of the US midterm elections and wants the US to agree to all of its terms. It also flagged the risk that such a stance could push Trump to order renewed military operations. The standoff is being watched well beyond the negotiation table: as investingLive's commodities coverage notes, US-Iran uncertainty has so far kept the downside in oil limited as markets await further developments.
