Europe's benchmark natural gas prices jumped on Tuesday morning in Amsterdam, as the Middle East crisis continues to act as a major supply shock while Europe races against time to build up inventories ahead of winter.

The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for European gas trading, rose 2% as of 8:40 a.m. Amsterdam time, reaching its highest level since the 2022-2023 energy crisis. At $86.90 (74.820 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), the price now exceeds January 2023 levels, when Europe faced its first winter without most Russian pipeline gas supply. Storage has taken on added importance since then, as EU rules require member states to fill storage sites to 90% of capacity by November 1 each year — a target that looks increasingly out of reach with sites below 70% full.

Last week, European gas prices booked their fourth consecutive weekly gain, as re-escalation in the Middle East dampened hopes that LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz could normalize soon.

Prices have rallied in recent weeks as gas storage sites across Europe remain less than 70% full, compared with 82% at this time in 2025 and a five-year average above 80%. Europe is heading into winter with one of its lowest gas storage levels in two decades, after the war in the Middle East crippled LNG supply from Qatar, sent gas and LNG prices in both Europe and Asia skyrocketing, and intensified competition for readily available global LNG cargoes that do not need to cross geopolitically charged chokepoints. Qatar had become one of Europe's largest LNG suppliers in the wake of the loss of Russian pipeline gas, making the disruption to its export routes through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of global LNG trade — particularly acute for the continent.

"The potential for a global 'fight for fuel' is there, particularly in a colder winter," Go Katayama, principal insight analyst for LNG at intelligence firm Kpler, told Bloomberg last week.

In a sign of intensifying competition, Asia's spot LNG price surged last week to its highest level since 2022.

"European and Asian gas prices have surged as the market adjusts to a more prolonged disruption to LNG supply," analysts at Timera Energy wrote in a note earlier this week. "Europe is pricing up to outcompete Asia for marginal LNG."

For now, the watch points for the months ahead are the pace of remaining storage injections ahead of the November deadline, LNG cargo arrivals from suppliers outside the Hormuz chokepoint such as the United States, and weather forecasts that will determine heating demand heading into winter.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com