Oil prices are surging toward $100 per barrel as Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, combined with renewed Middle East tensions, rattle global markets. The rally marks a sharp reversal for a market that had spent much of the year absorbing ample supply, and a sustained break above $100 would flow through to fuel costs for consumers and industry worldwide — a threshold last crossed during earlier geopolitical flare-ups in the region.

Europe's Gas Prices Surge as Storage Fears Return

European natural gas prices have jumped to €75 per MWh ($25.5 per MMBtu), the highest level since 2022 and more than double their level a year ago, as the continent's low inventories stoke fears of winter supply shocks. The last time prices were this elevated was in the aftermath of the loss of Russian pipeline supply, underlining how quickly the continent's cushion has eroded again.

Since the Al Nuaman LNG carrier delivered its cargo to Rovigo, Italy, in early April, the EU has not imported any Qatari LNG — volumes equivalent to 8% of its 2025 imports.

European gas inventories currently stand at 66% full, with market watchers flagging Germany and the Netherlands as particularly vulnerable ahead of winter, with stocks at 54% and 48%, respectively.

Adding to Europe's gas import bill, LNG prices delivered into Northwest Europe continue to climb in tandem with Asia's JKM benchmark, reaching $24.5 per MMBtu this week, with barely any backwardation between October and December. The lack of backwardation matters because it leaves European buyers with little seasonal price incentive to defer cargoes — meaning Europe and Asia are now effectively competing head-to-head for the same spot LNG volumes heading into winter.

Six-month-high prices are sapping the continent's LNG buying: September LNG imports are expected to match August's level of 7.5 million tonnes, down 13% year-over-year.

Market Movers

French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) announced that its planned 6 mtpa Papua LNG project is making 'decisive steps' toward a final investment decision, while transferring operatorship to US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM).

London-based energy giant Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly considering divesting all or part of its 72% stake in the Bintulu gas-to-liquids plant, a move that could raise as much as $1 billion.

Canadian oil producer Tamarack Valley Energy (TSO:TVE) agreed to merge with Headwater Exploration (TSO:HWX) in an all-stock deal worth $7.2 billion, creating the first-ever pure-play Clearwater producer with net output of 80,000 boe/day.

UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has appointed Ian Tyler as permanent chair; he had been named interim chair in May 2026 after his predecessor Albert Manifold was abruptly dismissed.

Italian oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has signed a contract to develop the giant Junin-5 heavy oil field in Venezuela, taking operatorship for the next 25 years.

Tuesday, September 08, 2026

Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure — along with their threats of potential military incursions — and US strikes on Iranian oil tankers have lifted oil prices above $99 per barrel, the highest in three months. With Israeli-Lebanese tensions flaring up again, observers note it would take only one bellicose Trump message to push oil back into triple-digit territory.

OPEC+ Holds October Targets Steady. OPEC+ left October 2026 production quotas unchanged after completing the rollback of its 1.65 million b/d voluntary cut in September, shifting focus toward a review of 2027 output baselines as the Iran conflict has capped the group's ability to ramp up output. The decision leaves the producer group with limited spare capacity to respond to further supply shocks in the Red Sea and Gulf.

Trump Threatens Trade Embargoes if Fed Holds Rates. President Trump warned he could impose a trade embargo on countries running surpluses against the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cuts its 3.5–3.75% policy rate, potentially targeting major trading partners such as the EU, Canada and Mexico.

Iran Threatens Gulf Exclusion Zone. Iran said it plans to establish a new maritime exclusion zone in the Gulf, extending it all the way to the blockade perimeter of the US Navy, potentially claiming the UAE port of Fujairah and Oman's Sohar, as it warned the White House about its new ballistic missiles. Fujairah is a key bunkering and oil-transshipment hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any disruption there would affect cargo flows well beyond Iranian crude.

Houthi Strikes Disrupt Saudi Aramco. Houthi missile and drone attacks forced the shutdown of operations at several Saudi energy facilities, including new strikes on the 400,000 b/d Jazan refinery that wounded 73 people — an unprecedented escalation of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

Dangote Targets $14 Billion Expansion. Ahead of its upcoming IPO, Nigeria's Dangote refinery disclosed plans to invest $14.3 billion to double processing capacity to 1.4 million b/d by 2029, viewing the $1.6 billion IPO as a next step toward self-financing after posting a $1.8 billion profit in the first half of 2026. Doubling capacity would make the plant — Africa's largest refinery — an even more significant supplier to West African fuel markets that have historically relied on imports.

China Crude Imports Rebound as Beijing Lifts Ban. China's August crude imports rose 6.2% month-on-month to 8.93 million b/d, marking a second consecutive monthly jump as Beijing eased its fuel export ban, while product exports jumped 29% from July despite ongoing weakness in domestic fuel demand.

Milei Eyes Escalation of Falklands Dispute. Argentina's government said it will file criminal complaints against Navitas Petroleum (TLV:NVPT) and its executives over their activity in the Falkland Islands, intensifying pressure on the 50,000 b/d Sea Lion project ahead of its planned 2028 commissioning.

Congo Tightens Grip on Critical Minerals Data. The DRC plans to launch a state-controlled geological databank by end-2026, giving Kinshasa greater oversight of exploration in a country that holds 6 million tonnes of cobalt reserves but remains only 20% explored, boosting its control over future cobalt supply. The DRC already produces the majority of the world's cobalt, a metal central to battery supply chains, and greater data control adds to the resource nationalism trend shaping critical minerals markets.

Qatar LNG Exits Hormuz After Two-Month Hiatus. Qatar's first LNG cargo since July has successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, with the Al Marrouna carrier bound for Pakistan, signaling a tentative recovery in exports from a supplier that typically accounts for around 20% of global LNG trade.

Ukraine Hits Ryazan Refinery Again. Ukraine reported a drone strike on Rosneft's 342,000 b/d Ryazan refinery, sparking a fire at the site in the most significant hit so far in September, just as Russia's crude processing rates began to rebound after falling to 3.9 million b/d in July, a 21-year low.

Copper Hits Record as Global Stocks Shrink. The LME's benchmark three-month copper contract climbed to a record $14,617 per tonne this week as inventories outside the U.S. tightened sharply, with 51% of LME stocks slated for withdrawal and SHFE stock inventories down 85% since March. The record comes alongside the energy-market tightness, with copper — a metal essential to electrification and grid buildout — showing how supply stress is broadening across commodities.

Aramco Delays Cargoes to Europe. Saudi Aramco has reportedly delayed some September oil cargoes to European buyers despite nominations rising to 1.3 million b/d, suggesting Houthi missile strikes in the Red Sea are disrupting exports; August loadings came in at a mere 2.2 million b/d.

Sri Lanka Eyes Doubling of Refining Capacity. Sri Lanka's Ceylon Petroleum Corp plans to double refining capacity to 100,000 b/d within four years and will seek a joint-venture partner through a tender process, aiming to end its dependence on fuel imports in the wake of the U.S.-Iran war.

China Car Sales Slide as Exports Surge. China's passenger vehicle sales fell 24% year-on-year to 1.54 million units in August, the 11th straight year-on-year drop, as carmakers increasingly rely on overseas demand, with exports jumping 78% to 888,000 vehicles, accounting for 38% of all sales.

Brazil Counts on Pre-Salt Windfall. Brazil expects to raise 22.4 billion reais ($4.4 billion) from a special pre-salt oil auction in 2027, with proceeds exceeding its projected $3.6-billion primary surplus and forming a key pillar of the government's plan to deliver its first fiscal surplus since 2022.

China Stalls Rio Purchases Amid Iron Ore Talks. China's state-backed CMRG has reportedly instructed steel mills to postpone purchases of Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore during contract negotiations, a move that could affect supplies representing nearly 20% of China's annual iron ore imports.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com