Ethereum is confronting a key technical test after more than 116,000 ETH, worth nearly $300 million, was moved out of centralized exchanges within 48 hours. The sharp decline in exchange-held supply has raised expectations of a major price move, although ETH remains below an important resistance area.

During the reporting period, Ethereum was trading at $2,491.44 with a 24-hour trading volume of $20.74 billion and a market capitalization of $304.01 billion. ETH accounted for approximately 11.24% of the total crypto market, while its price had slipped by 0.15% over the past 24 hours.

Exchange Outflows Point to Lower Selling Supply

According to a recent post by crypto analyst Ali Charts, more than 116,000 ETH have been taken away from exchanges over the last two days. At an approximate price of $2,500 per token, the transfer represents roughly $300 million in value.

ETHEREUM BREAKOUT INCOMING Over 116,000 $ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges in just the past 48 hours, worth nearly $300 million. With exchange supply shrinking this aggressively, the setup for a major move is getting interesting. pic.twitter.com/4SnNTzcUOd — Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 6, 2026

Withdrawing a significant number of tokens from exchanges can reduce the amount of ETH available for sale. However, withdrawals do not necessarily indicate that investors intend to HODL their tokens, as funds can leave exchanges for staking, custody, and other purposes. This distinction matters for Ethereum in particular: a large share of ETH supply is already locked in staking and staking pools, where tokens are removed from circulation to help secure the network, and withdrawals to self-custody or institutional custody solutions are a common reason for exchange balances to decline without any change in holder intent.

Exchange flow data has long been watched as a supply-side indicator because tokens held on exchanges are generally more readily available for sale than tokens in cold storage. Even so, flow metrics are only one input among many, and past episodes of large outflows have not always been followed by the price moves traders anticipated.

The development follows another large holder moving 167,855 ETH, worth approximately $408 million, toward exchanges over several days. Despite that selling-related action, ETH managed to hold above the $2,400 area, indicating that demand absorbed the selling pressure.

Ethereum Price Tests Key Technical Resistance

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum remains caught between support and resistance. Ali Charts identified the $2,530–$2,540 region as a strong resistance zone after ETH faced rejection near those levels. Recent market analysis also places the wider resistance area around $2,515–$2,560, making this zone particularly important for the next directional move.

The analyst also highlighted a fair value gap between $2,480 and $2,520 as a possible retest area. A sustained move above $2,530 could improve the short-term setup, while failure to reclaim the zone may keep sellers active.

On the downside, $2,434 is the first highlighted target, followed by $2,385. The broader support area sits around $2,375–$2,385. A sustained break below these levels could weaken the recovery and increase downside pressure.

What Comes Next for ETH?

Ethereum's next move will likely depend on whether exchange outflows continue while the price attempts to reclaim resistance. Continued withdrawals could reduce immediate selling supply, but ETH still needs stronger buying pressure to turn the current setup into a confirmed breakout. Traders watching this setup will also be monitoring whether subsequent exchange flow data confirms the withdrawal trend or reverses, as single two-day snapshots can be followed by offsetting inflows.

For now, the key levels are clear: holding above $2,480–$2,490 would keep the recovery structure intact, while a decisive move above $2,530–$2,540 could strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, a break below $2,434 would shift attention toward the $2,385 support zone.