Dogecoin (DOGE), the original dog-themed memecoin launched in 2013, traded around $0.085 on Friday, closing in on a key trendline area after a weekly decline of more than 11%. Falling balances among some large holders and weakening technical momentum point to continued downside pressure for the token. However, derivatives positioning offers a more mixed picture, with long positions outnumbering shorts in the ratio tracked by analytics platform CoinGlass. That split — falling large-holder balances alongside still-active leveraged longs — is the thread to follow as DOGE tests its nearest support.

Whales trim DOGE holdings

On-chain analytics firm Santiment's supply data shows that wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE and those holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE have collectively reduced their balances by 100 million tokens since Tuesday. Santiment groups addresses into cohorts based on the number of tokens they hold, and its cohort breakdowns are among the most widely watched gauges for tracking how the largest holders respond to price swings. The drawdown suggests some large holders are reducing exposure, potentially through profit-taking. Wallet balance changes alone do not confirm that every token was sold, but the movement adds to concerns about near-term supply pressure.

CryptoQuant's summary indicators also point to caution. Its data identifies overheating conditions in both spot and futures markets, alongside large orders and sell-side dominance in futures. Taken together, these signals suggest that selling pressure remains significant as DOGE approaches nearby support.

Derivatives data paints a mixed picture

Despite the price decline, the DOGE long-to-short ratio tracked by CoinGlass stood at 0.90 on Friday, approaching its highest level in more than a month. A reading above one indicates that longs outnumber shorts within the positions or accounts tracked by the metric, making the ratio a quick reference for how leveraged traders are positioned on either side of the market.

Funding rates also remained positive at 0.0010%, meaning long traders were paying short traders to maintain their positions. The positive funding rate indicates that leveraged long positions remained active despite the week's losses. Together, the readings suggest some traders are positioning for a recovery, although they do not establish that buying demand is strong enough to reverse the decline while price momentum remains weak.

Momentum deteriorates near $0.084 support

Dogecoin is trading just above a trendline area near $0.084, which serves as the immediate technical support reference. A daily close below that level could open the way toward $0.078, while a deeper correction would bring the next structural floor at $0.070 into focus.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 40, below its neutral midpoint of 50 and consistent with weaker buying momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below both zero and its signal line, and its negative, slightly expanding histogram suggests sellers retain the near-term advantage.

DOGE also remains beneath several important exponential moving averages (EMAs), creating successive barriers to a rebound. The first resistance is the 100-day EMA near $0.086. Above it, the 50-day EMA and a horizontal resistance level converge around $0.088, and clearing those levels would help ease immediate bearish pressure. A stronger recovery would require a move above the 200-day EMA at $0.093, followed by a challenge of major resistance near $0.102.

For now, the balance between support at $0.084 and the moving averages overhead will help determine whether DOGE stabilizes or extends its weekly losses. The data points to watch next are just as clear-cut: whether Santiment's whale cohorts resume adding tokens, whether the long-to-short ratio moves above one, and how DOGE closes against the $0.084 trendline in the sessions ahead.

This article first appeared on CoinJournal.