NewsStocksNvidia-Backed CoreWeave Stabilizes After Slump as $50 Billion Debt Load Fuels AI Credit Concerns

Nvidia-Backed CoreWeave Stabilizes After Slump as $50 Billion Debt Load Fuels AI Credit Concerns

Author: Bworldonline·

Key Takeaways

  • •CoreWeave, which carries roughly $50 billion in debt, saw its shares recover 5% on Thursday after dropping as much as 8.3% to their lowest level since May 2025.
  • •The yield on bonds CoreWeave issued in April traded around 15%, above the level that typically signals distress, and default-insurance costs imply a nearly 63% probability of default within five years, up from about 30% a year ago.
  • •Nvidia, CoreWeave's second-largest investor with about a 10% stake, has agreed to purchase unsold capacity through April 13, 2032, and CEO Jensen Huang said CoreWeave's cost of capital is decreasing with no need for a backstop.
  • •CoreWeave raised its annual capital spending forecast by $4 billion to as much as $39 billion in August, roughly three times the nearly $13 billion in revenue analysts expect this year alongside a projected $2.13 billion loss.
  • •Gartner estimates about 80% of neoclouds could shut down by 2030 and that more than $3.5 trillion of AI spending could face impairment if providers maintain their current pace of investment.
Nvidia-Backed CoreWeave Stabilizes After Slump as $50 Billion Debt Load Fuels AI Credit Concerns

Shares of Nvidia-backed CoreWeave stabilized on Thursday following a sharp sell-off, as investors increasingly zeroed in on the debt financing underpinning the artificial intelligence build-out.

The loss-making cloud provider carries roughly $50 billion in debt and has become a focal point in the debate over whether the data-center boom is being fueled by credit — a dynamic straining newer entrants and squeezing cash flows even at giants such as Alphabet and Meta Platforms. CoreWeave's slide helped ignite a global rout in AI stocks, reflecting investor doubts about whether future revenue from the technology can keep pace with the spending. Because CoreWeave and newer cloud rivals like it borrow heavily to buy the processors they rent out, its credit standing is increasingly being read as a gauge of the AI build-out's financial foundations.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose company holds about a 10% stake as CoreWeave's second-largest investor, sought to play down the fears. "CoreWeave's financial strength is improving every day," Huang told reporters at an event in Stockholm, adding that he sees no need for Nvidia to backstop the company. "I'm optimistic. Their cost of capital is actually decreasing."

CoreWeave shares were last up 5%, after falling as much as 8.3% to their lowest level since May 2025.

"The market is waking up to the fact that AI demand and a profitable business model are two very different things," said Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at IG Group. "It looks more like investors questioning how the build-out is being funded than a sudden collapse in appetite for AI computing. But if the cost of capital keeps rising, even strong demand may not be enough to protect the most heavily leveraged players."

The jitters come as investors await Anthropic's IPO, which would test whether the maker of the Claude AI model can translate rapid revenue growth into reassurance about runaway AI spending. The selloff has already prompted some companies, including smart ring maker Oura, to delay their listings, making the reception of Anthropic's debut one of the nearest-term checkpoints for sentiment toward AI-exposed companies.

The yield on bonds CoreWeave issued in April traded around 15% on Thursday — above the threshold that typically signals distress — drawing a "yikes" from Elon Musk on social media. A yield at that level means bondholders are demanding double-digit annual returns to hold the debt, raising the cost of any future refinancing at market rates. The bonds were last down 0.3 cents on the dollar at 79.15 cents, according to Tradeweb data.

Meanwhile, the cost of insuring CoreWeave's debt against default has climbed to roughly 1,000 basis points, implying a nearly 63% probability of default within five years, up from about 30% a year ago. That is despite an agreement under which Nvidia will purchase any unsold CoreWeave capacity through April 13, 2032.

Options traders also ramped up bearish bets. Volume in put options, which give investors the right to sell shares at a set price, hit a record high on Wednesday, according to Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna. "People are using put options to hedge negative credit sentiment, and we've seen consistent and aggressive put buying all week," Murphy said. Investors bought contracts that would profit if CoreWeave shares fell below $42.50, $50, and $60 in the coming weeks, while others used more complex trades to lower the cost of some of those bearish wagers by assuming risk tied to much lower share-price levels later in the year, according to Murphy and TradeAlert data.

CoreWeave, which went public in March 2025, leads the pack of newer cloud providers known as neoclouds, which rent out computing power from scarce and costly Nvidia processors to meet surging demand — often borrowing heavily to buy the chips. Microsoft and OpenAI are among its customers, according to media reports. Critics say the model leaves neoclouds exposed to any cooling in AI demand, while the chips lose value as newer generations arrive, forcing another round of heavy spending to replace them.

CoreWeave raised its annual capital spending forecast by $4 billion to as much as $39 billion in August. Analysts expect the company to post revenue of nearly $13 billion this year alongside a loss of $2.13 billion. That plan implies capital outlays of up to roughly three times projected revenue this year, underscoring the company's reliance on continued access to outside financing.

Worries about the build-out — on which US tech giants are expected to spend more than $700 billion this year — have in recent days rippled through the stocks that have been the biggest winners since ChatGPT's November 2022 launch. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a closely watched gauge of chip stocks, has erased over $1.6 trillion in market value in an 11.6% slide over the past six sessions. The Nasdaq has declined more than 3% over the same period. On Thursday, technology shares fell across Asia, Europe, and the US, dragging broader markets lower on fears that rising interest rates could hurt the sector.

'Unlimited' Pools of Capital

The selloff came as CoreWeave co-founder Brannin McBee told the Financial Times that the company is seeking an investment-grade rating, which would open the door to "unlimited" capital. Investment-grade status typically grants issuers access to the largest and lowest-cost pools of bond financing, which is central to how CoreWeave is framing its long-term funding strategy. The same day, research firm Gartner said about 80% of neoclouds could shut down by 2030 and that more than $3.5 trillion of AI spending could face impairment if AI providers maintain their current pace of investment.

"In 2026, AI providers are expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on AI infrastructure, and are forecast to invest an additional $6 trillion between 2027 and 2030," said Will Sommer, an analyst at Gartner. "However, our research indicates enterprise and consumer AI revenue will be insufficient to support profitable returns on all planned AI capital expenditures during this period."

CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator pushed back on the concerns in an internal memo on Wednesday seen by Reuters, telling employees the company's deal backlog more than covers its debt obligations and that markets can sometimes "misunderstand and act irrationally." With Nvidia's capacity commitment running to April 13, 2032, Gartner's 2030 shakeout projection, CoreWeave's investment-grade push, and Anthropic's awaited IPO, the sector now has a series of near- and long-term markers against which both the company's assurances and the credit market's doubts will be tested.

— Reuters