Cook Political Report Shifts Four Red-State Races Toward Democrats, Moving Texas and Iowa Senate Contests to Toss-Up
Key Takeaways
- •Texas and Iowa Senate races were moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up, making both contests more competitive for Democrats.
- •The Texas governor’s race shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican as polling tightened between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa.
- •The Iowa governor’s race moved from Toss Up to Leans Democrat, reflecting Rob Sand’s polling lead over Zach Lahn.
- •Cook said Republicans still have a structural advantage, but public and private polling suggests Democrats are gaining ground in states Donald Trump won by wide margins.
- •The ratings changes are closely watched because they can influence where campaigns and donors decide to spend time and resources.
The Cook Political Report has shifted four statewide races in Republican-controlled states toward Democrats, an ominous sign for the GOP heading into the fall campaign.
The storied election forecasting firm moved the Texas and Iowa U.S. Senate races from Lean Republican to Toss Up, giving Democratic challengers James Talarico and Josh Turek a coin-flip chance of defeating Republicans Ken Paxton and Ashley Hinson, respectively.
Cook also shifted the Texas governor's race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, reflecting tightening polls between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Most notably, the firm moved the Iowa governor's race from Toss Up to Leans Democrat, reflecting the consistent polling lead held by Democratic state auditor Rob Sand over MAGA-aligned businessman Zach Lahn.
"The battle for the Senate is about to intensify ahead of the traditional Labor Day starting gun," Cook analyst Jessica Taylor wrote. "Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way. But as we recently wrote, in a wave election akin to 2006, even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats' reach. That's what we see happening in Texas and Iowa."
"Even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that Trump won by more than 13 points, it's increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive," Taylor continued, citing the "worsening national and state-based environment" for Republicans.
Cook's move stunned some observers, who noted that the organization tends to be very cautious about shifting race forecasts in this way. The changes also matter because Cook's ratings are closely watched by campaigns, donors, and political handicappers as a shorthand for which contests are becoming more competitive and where parties may need to divert time and resources.
"Cook is really conservative about moving races, and these numbers should scare Republicans," Penn scholar and author Brian Rosenwald wrote on X. "That means Cook is hearing about internal polling that's bad for Republicans in both places."
