Coinbase (COIN) shares have remained under pressure this week as cryptocurrencies lost momentum. The stock fell to $169, down nearly 20% from this month's high of $207, and attention now shifts to the company's upcoming earnings report, which is expected to provide more detail on the business and the outlook for the remainder of the year. The company will publish its financial results next week. For a company whose results move with crypto market activity, the timing makes the report a key checkpoint for how the pullback has filtered into the business.

Crypto Market Weakness Weighs on COIN

COIN shares have dropped substantially in recent weeks as Bitcoin and most altcoins lost momentum. Bitcoin fell to $81,600 on Friday from this month's high of $87,254, while Ethereum has declined to $2,397 from its September high of $2,806. The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has dropped to $2.73 trillion, a loss of close to $300 billion in value. That weakness matters for Coinbase because its transaction revenue depends on trading activity, which typically cools when asset prices retreat — a dynamic that shows up directly in the estimates analysts have for the quarter.

What Analysts Expect From Coinbase's Results

Coinbase stock will next react to its upcoming earnings report, which is expected to provide hints about the state of the business. Analysts expect the results to show that revenue fell 35% in the quarter to $1.21 billion. They also expect an earnings per share of minus $0.09, compared with $1.50 in the same period a year earlier — a swing from profit to projected loss that illustrates how sharply the crypto winter affected the company's core economics.

The anticipated revenue decline reflects the crypto winter that persisted during the quarter. On the positive side, Bitcoin and other coins began rising during the quarter, and it remains to be seen how that recovery influenced Coinbase's business.

The stock will also react to the company's forward guidance. Analysts expect the guidance to show fourth-quarter revenue of $1.37 billion, down more than 22% from a year earlier. If that proves accurate, it would bring annual revenue to $5.38 billion, a decline of 25% from the prior year. The guidance is likely to be one of the most closely watched figures in the release, since it shows how management views trading conditions heading into the final stretch of the year.

Earnings to Detail Broader Business Segments

The report is also expected to provide more information on other parts of Coinbase's business. The company has transitioned from being a crypto exchange into an everything exchange, where customers can trade stocks, ETFs, and other assets. By introducing stock trading, Coinbase aims to reduce its exposure to crypto market volatility.

Coinbase has also launched a predictions marketplace, where users can bet on real-life events such as sports and politics. Its last earnings report showed that the predictions marketplace was performing well, particularly because of the World Cup.

The company has additionally become a major player in the stablecoin industry through its partnership with Circle Internet Group, retaining all of the interest it earns on the USDC supply held on its platform.

At the same time, Coinbase has introduced an agents tool that lets customers connect AI agents such as Muse and Replit to its platform. These agents can trade on customers' behalf.

Taken together, these businesses form the core of Coinbase's effort to smooth out results across market cycles. How much each contributed during the quarter, and whether they offset a softer trading backdrop, will be among the clearest indicators of how far that transition has progressed.

Analyst Targets Sit Above Current Levels

Analysts have remained optimistic about Coinbase stock. Needham raised its price target from $200 to $205, Citigroup lifted its target from $210 to $230, and Morgan Stanley set a target of $258. Other prominent firms with bullish views on the stock include Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and BTIG. Those targets, ranging from roughly $205 to $258, all sit well above the current $169 share price — a gap that frames the earnings release as a test of whether the diversification story can outweigh the expected revenue decline.

Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that COIN has slumped in recent days, falling from a high of $207 earlier this month to the current $169. The stock has dropped below its 50-day moving average and formed a descending channel. It has also moved below the Supertrend and Ichimoku cloud indicators.

Based on this setup, the stock will likely continue falling in the near term. If that happens, the next level to watch is the psychological mark of $150. On the other hand, a move above resistance at $180 would invalidate the bearish outlook.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Stock and cryptocurrency investments carry substantial volatility and the potential for capital losses. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.

This article first appeared on The Market Periodical.