The North American Class 8 truck market cooled in July after an exceptionally strong spring, but industry analysts said the slowdown points to limited production availability rather than weakening freight demand.

FTR Transportation Intelligence reported preliminary North American Class 8 net orders of 22,000 units in July, down 31% from June but 75% higher than July 2025. The research firm said replacement demand, firmer freight rates, improving fleet utilization and moderate pre-buy activity ahead of upcoming emissions regulations continue to support the heavy-duty truck market.

ACT Research reached nearly the same conclusion, estimating 22,100 preliminary Class 8 orders. That figure was up 68% year over year but down 30% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The close alignment between the two market forecasters suggests that truck demand remains resilient despite July’s sequential decline, even as fleets face a more constrained ordering environment heading into the back half of the year.

“The sizable month-over-month decline doesn’t reflect a sudden drop in demand for new equipment but indicates a lack of 2026 build slots available as orders run up against full Class 8 backlogs,” ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth said in a blog post.

Vieth added that uncertainty surrounding Environmental Protection Agency emissions regulations could be delaying some purchasing decisions until manufacturers open 2027 order books.

FTR senior analyst Dan Moyer said calendar-year 2026 production is essentially sold out, shifting fleet attention toward model-year 2027 trucks and how manufacturers will navigate EPA emissions requirements.

“Overall, July’s preliminary order volume suggests that Class 8 demand remains healthy as activity normalizes from unusually strong winter and spring levels,” Moyer said in a statement. “The next phase of the cycle will depend more on production-related factors than on overall demand.”

Despite July’s month-over-month decline, FTR said the industry continues to post one of its strongest order years in recent memory.

Through July, 2026 Class 8 net orders are 120% higher than the same period last year. Orders placed during the current order season, spanning September 2025 through July 2026, have climbed 39% year over year, while rolling 12-month orders totaled 344,823 units.

Both research firms said manufacturers have not yet opened most 2027 order boards, limiting fleets’ ability to place additional orders even as freight fundamentals continue improving and maintaining pressure on the timing of future order activity.

ACT also reported improving demand in the medium-duty market. Preliminary North American Classes 5-7 net orders reached 18,300 units in July, up 41% from a year earlier, with seasonally adjusted orders remaining above 20,000 units for the third consecutive month.

Used truck market rebounds

The improving outlook for new trucks comes as the used truck market also showed renewed strength in June.

According to ACT Research, same-dealer used Class 8 retail sales increased 9.6% from May, extending gains to 4.0% year over year. The average retail selling price rose 2% month over month to $61,751, while remaining 1.5% above year-ago levels.

ACT Vice President Steve Tam said June’s retail rebound exceeded normal seasonal expectations even as auction and wholesale markets softened. Auction volumes fell 22% month over month, wholesale dealer activity slipped 4.8%, and total same-dealer market sales declined 5.1%, underscoring the gap between retail demand and wholesale activity.

Together, the new- and used-truck data point to a market that is still active, but increasingly shaped by inventory, build-slot availability and regulatory timing rather than a broad shift in end-customer demand.