Clarity Act odds of passage jumped to 31% overnight — more than doubling off recent lows — after President Donald Trump agreed to updated ethics provisions that would restrict crypto activities by him, his family and other elected officials, according to Decrypt's Morning Minute newsletter by Tyler Warner. Crypto majors rebounded on news, with Bitcoin trading at about $77,700.

The development sets up a pivotal week for US crypto market structure legislation — the push to write digital asset market oversight into statute — with the Senate scheduled to vote on cloture Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. ET. Cloture is the procedural step that allows a bill to move to floor debate, and it requires 60 votes in the 100-seat Senate, a threshold that makes bipartisan support unavoidable in the current chamber.

Schumer Rallies Democrats Ahead of Tuesday Vote

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called Senate Democrats together Sunday evening to discuss the Clarity Act, two days before the vote that decides whether crypto market structure legislation happens this year. The meeting followed Trump's Friday session with advisors on the bill's ethics provisions — the issue that has blocked the legislation since July.

The updated ethics language, which would restrict what Trump and his family can do in crypto, along with other elected officials, had been the primary sticking point for many Democrats.

Sixty votes are needed to send the bill to floor debate. Anything less kills comprehensive crypto legislation for 2026, with the next realistic window in 2029. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and at least two are expected to vote no, meaning supporters likely need nine Democrats. As of Friday, not one had publicly committed, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) had just said the revised text still falls short.

Between now and Tuesday's roll call, public commitments from Democratic senators are the clearest signal of whether that nine-vote gap can be closed.

The rewritten bill landed Thursday at 630 pages, with more than 114 provisions added at Democratic request. The substantive change places "decentralized-in-name-only" protocols under CFTC registration and Bank Secrecy Act rules. The ethics language went untouched, which is precisely the problem, per the newsletter.

Regulatory Progress With or Without a Statute

Even if the bill fails, regulatory momentum continues to build. CFTC Chair Mike Selig has told his staff to explore rules under existing authority if Congress does not act. The SEC has proposed letting blockchains serve as official stock ownership records. The CFTC moved to dismiss CME's suit over perpetual futures — derivative contracts with no expiry date — and Coinbase filed to bring single-stock perps, the equity-tied version of those same instruments, onshore — all within two weeks, without a statute.

Read together, the two tracks frame the stakes of Tuesday's vote: passage would write the rules into statute, while failure leaves agencies to keep building the framework on their existing authority.

If the bill does pass, that scenario does not appear priced in at all, Warner wrote. In his analysis, ETH would be a big winner, as would revenue-generating protocols like Hyperliquid and Lighter, with a broad rally across the crypto board likely.

Markets

Crypto majors were green, up 1-3%, as Clarity Act odds jumped: BTC +1% at $77.8k, ETH +1% at $2,510, SOL +2% at $101, HYPE +4% at $80 and ZEC +3% at $1,130. Top alt movers included FIL (+22%), Pendle (+9%) and LIT (+9%).

Oil rose 3% to $103, while gold slipped 2% to $4,333. Stock futures were red on calls for an AI slowdown: the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.5%.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slowing frontier AI development, citing AI systems that increasingly help build their own successors, with Sam Altman and Elon Musk both publicly agreeing.

A fake government request slipped through Revolut's checks, exposing passports, verification selfies, home addresses and full Bitcoin transaction histories for an undisclosed number of customers, with no funds lost.

India launched "Demat 2.0" to issue corporate bonds as digital tokens on a permissioned ledger settled with the wholesale digital rupee, with REC, Larsen & Toubro and IIFL Finance already raising about $107 million against a $620 billion market.

ETF Flows

Bitcoin ETFs saw $13 million in net outflows on Friday, while ETH ETFs took in $216 million in a striking difference.

Meme Coins

Meme coin leaders were slightly green: DOGE +1%, SHIB +1%, PEPE +1%, PENGU -1%, TRUMP +1% and SPX +5%.

Robinhood Chain leaders were mostly red as chain volume falls: Pons +4% to $390 million, AI -1% at $245 million and Cashcat -5% at $150 million, while Pare (+40%), Strategy (+60%) and Raxol (+110%) led top movers. On Solana, Cate (+40%), Perpspad (+46%) and Biketyson (+290%) led movers.

Protocol Revenue

Pump led onchain protocols in revenue over the past seven days with $10.2 million, followed by Hyperliquid ($9.9 million), Aerodrome ($9.2 million), Pons ($8 million) and Stonkfun ($7.4 million). Stonkfun posted a blowoff revenue day Friday with $2.2 million, though revenue fell to $1.05 million and $900,000 across the two weekend days that followed.

Pump also introduced Holder Rewards, a new mechanism in which creators can select a percentage of fee share to go back to holders of their token, aimed at encouraging holding.

NFTs

NFT leaders were mostly flat: Punks were even at 29.8 ETH, BAYC -1% at 6.65 ETH and Pudgy -3% at 3.46 ETH. Argonauts (+20%) and Cat Street Broker (+120%) led top movers, with Argonauts notching a 14.5 ETH sale overnight as its floor ran to 0.86 ETH.