Prediction-market confidence in the CLARITY Act has fallen sharply, with traders now assigning just a 20% chance that the U.S. crypto market-structure bill will be signed into law before the end of 2026.

The Polymarket contract on H.R. 3633 has generated more than $7.2 million in volume and requires the legislation to pass both chambers of Congress and receive presidential approval by December 31. The market reached 82% on February 19, leaving the implied probability down 62 percentage point from its 2026 high.

The CLARITY Act would define which digital assets are regulated as commodities and which as securities, giving the CFTC primary authority over digital-commodity spot trading while leaving tokens offered and sold as investment contracts under SEC oversight. It is the market-structure counterpart to the GENIUS Act, the federal stablecoin framework signed into law in July 2025.

Senate Delay Reverses Months of CLARITY Optimism

The latest pricing marks a sharp reversal from May, when Kalshi traders put the bill's 2026 passage odds at 71% following its Senate Banking breakthrough. Confidence had already fallen to around 56% later that month as traders began pricing in the more difficult floor-vote mathematics.

The bill cleared Senate Banking in a 15-9 vote on May 14, with only two Democrats joining Republicans. The House had already passed H.R. 3633 on a bipartisan 308-122 vote in July 2025, leaving the Senate as the final hurdle. Its path to final passage requires broader bipartisan support to overcome the Senate's 60-vote threshold.

Momentum weakened further after the legislation missed its July 4 target and negotiations continued into the summer. An updated version was still being prepared in mid-July as lawmakers aimed for a vote before the August recess.

September 15 Becomes a Critical Senate Test

The Senate ultimately left Washington without holding the vote. Majority Leader John Thune has filed for cloture, setting up a September 15 procedural vote that will require 60 senators to advance the legislation. The chamber returns on September 14 and has only 14 scheduled session days before its October election recess.

That timetable sharpens the same challenge identified when the bill entered its pre-recess 60-vote Senate test. Negotiators still face disagreements over ethics restrictions, anti-money-laundering rules, stablecoin rewards, community-bank concerns, and protections for non-custodial developers.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins had previously said the CLARITY Act could provide a durable statutory foundation for digital asset oversight, rather than leaving policy mainly dependent on agency rulemaking.

SEC Rules Emerge as the Next Regulatory Catalyst

As congressional odds deteriorate, U.S. crypto policy is increasingly shifting through the SEC and CFTC. The SEC this week proposed crypto fundraising exemptions of up to $75 million annually, along with a conditional safe harbor addressing when crypto assets can move beyond investment-contract status.

Agency rules can affect token issuance, trading, and market access, but Congress remains the route to a more durable division of authority between the SEC and CFTC.

Polymarket traders now price an 80% chance that the CLARITY Act will not become law in 2026, with the September 15 cloture vote serving as its next confirmed congressional test. If cloture fails, any revival would face a short post-election lame-duck window before unfinished legislation expires with the end of the Congress and would have to be reintroduced in the next session.