Capital Economics has released a new episode of its Weekly Briefing podcast, titled "Midterm upset, rate cycles split," dated November 6, 2026. The episode lands three days after election day and is available on Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, or via other leading podcast platforms, with the episode page hosted at Capital Economics.

Episode focus

As the title suggests, the episode pairs the upset result of the United States midterm elections with a look at interest-rate cycles moving out of step across economies. The midterm contests took place on November 3, 2026, when voters cast ballots in races covering all 435 seats of the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate. Midterm elections fall halfway through a president's four-year term, and their results set the party composition of both chambers of Congress for the next two years, shaping the legislative agenda and the policy backdrop against which economists and businesses plan.

The firm's related research frames the outcome as a "blue wave": a Global Economics Update titled Blue wave could bring new geopolitical risks and a US Economics Update, Blue tsunami, which examines how the midterms increase policy risks. In US politics, blue is the color conventionally associated with the Democratic Party — the frame of reference for both titles. The page also highlights the latest Australia and New Zealand Economics Weekly, which argues that investors are underestimating the scope for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate moves. The RBA is Australia's central bank and sets the country's monetary policy, with rate decisions flowing through to borrowing costs across the economy — a pointer to the episode's second theme: when central banks move at different speeds or in different directions, the resulting divergence is a standard reference point for cross-border currency and capital-flow analysis.

Related content

Excerpts below appear as previewed on the episode page.

US International Trade (Sep. 2026)

Thomas Ryan, Senior North America Economist: "The negligible narrowing in the trade deficit in September, as export growth barely outpaced import growth, is broadly consistent with the BEA's…" The BEA is the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the agency that compiles the country's trade statistics. The trade balance also feeds into gross domestic product, where net exports are one of the components — one reason economists track the monthly figures.

Korea: AI and demographics brighten the long-term outlook

Gareth Leather, Senior Asia Economist: "Korea's trend growth has slowed over the past few decades, reflecting weaker productivity and slower workforce growth. But we think this slowdown has…" Trend growth — an economy's sustainable pace of expansion once cyclical swings are stripped out — serves as a benchmark for long-run planning by policymakers and firms.

Indonesia replaces finance minister amid signs of policy reset

Gareth Leather, Senior Asia Economist: "Indonesia's decision today to replace Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa with his deputy is a welcome development, although we need more evidence…" The finance ministry steers the country's budget and fiscal policy, which is why leadership changes there attract attention as signals of policy direction.