NewsStocksCanadian National Raises Full-Year Outlook After Second-Quarter Volume Growth Tops Expectations

Canadian National Raises Full-Year Outlook After Second-Quarter Volume Growth Tops Expectations

Author: FreightWaves·

Key Takeaways

  • Canadian National raised its annual guidance after previously forecasting flat volumes and low-single-digit earnings growth.
  • Second-quarter operating income increased 9% to US$1.26 billion, while revenue rose 11% to $3.37 billion.
  • Adjusted earnings per share climbed 11% to $1.48 in the second quarter.
  • CN reported a 62.5% operating ratio, with higher fuel prices adding pressure to the metric.
  • The company said wildfires in northern Ontario and British Columbia are not affecting its operations or infrastructure.
Canadian National Raises Full-Year Outlook After Second-Quarter Volume Growth Tops Expectations

Canadian National raised its outlook for the rest of the year on Friday after the railway reported higher second-quarter revenue and profit, offering a signal of resilience in North American freight demand even as broader economic uncertainty persists.

“With this momentum, we’re raising our guidance, and now expect earnings for the year of mid to high single-digits on the back of low single-digit volume” growth, Chief Executive Tracy Robinson told investors and analysts during the railway’s earnings call before markets opened. “The engine is running well. We’re executing against our strategy, and we can see the results.”

CN (NYSE: CNI) had previously projected flat volumes and low single-digit earnings growth. The Montreal-based carrier operates roughly 20,000 route-miles of track spanning Canada from the Atlantic to the Pacific and extending into the U.S. Midwest and the Gulf Coast, making it a critical link in the North American supply chain alongside rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City.

Second-quarter operating income rose 9% to US$1.26 billion, while revenue increased 11% to $3.37 billion. Earnings per share, adjusted for the effect of one-time items, climbed 11% to $1.48.

The railway’s operating ratio was 62.5%, up 0.8 points from the prior year. In the railroad industry, the operating ratio measures operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, and lower figures generally indicate stronger efficiency. Higher fuel prices weighed on the operating ratio by 2.1 points.

Volume increased 5% when measured by revenue-ton miles, CN’s preferred volume metric. On the basis of carloads and intermodal containers, volume declined 0.35%.

Chief Commercial Officer Janet Drysdale said CN has a positive outlook for the remainder of the year in petroleum and chemicals traffic, grain, domestic intermodal, and automotive. The company’s outlook is neutral for metals and minerals, as well as coal. CN has a negative outlook for forest products, fertilizer, and international intermodal.

Key operating metrics were broadly steady during the quarter. “The network is running well. Car velocity and network train speed were largely flat year over year while handling stronger volumes and maintaining solid customer service,” Chief Operating Officer Patrick Whitehead said.

Whitehead said the railway posted its best second-quarter and first-half fuel efficiency results. Locomotive productivity increased 6%, and train and engine crew productivity rose 13% as CN operated longer trains.

CN’s capacity expansion projects in Western Canada are contributing to improved fluidity and velocity as the railway handles record grain and potash shipments, along with higher volumes of refined petroleum products, natural gas liquids, and other commodities.

“Car velocity, train speed, and dwell improved roughly 3%,” Whitehead said of CN’s Western Region. “That combination matters. It demonstrates that the capacity investments we have made, disciplined train planning, and strong execution are allowing us to absorb growth while improving overall fluidity.”

Wildfires currently burning in northern Ontario and British Columbia are not affecting CN’s operations or infrastructure. The carrier is closely monitoring the fires and has deployed its fleet of firefighting trains.