Wall Street Eyes a Rebound as Rising Treasury Yields Keep Traders on Edge
Key Takeaways
- •US equity futures signaled a light bounce at Friday's open, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% and Nvidia shares rising about 1.5% in pre-market trading despite the ongoing turmoil around the AI chipmaker.
- •Renewed "higher for longer" concerns pushed long-end Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year up 3.6 basis points to 5.139% and the 30-year nearing 5.48%, raising borrowing costs that pressure growth stocks already questioned over heavy AI infrastructure spending.
- •The US dollar led major currencies as USD/JPY flirted with the 160.00 level, drawing another verbal warning from Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi, while AUD/USD slipped 0.3% to 0.6789.
- •European data painted an uneven picture, with French inflation accelerating on surging energy prices and Spanish inflation remaining stubborn, keeping ECB rate hike expectations alive, while the second estimate of eurozone Q3 GDP was left unchanged.
- •Gold gained 0.4% to $3,891 amid a battle around the 100-week moving average at $3,896, while Bitcoin dropped 3.0% to $69,286 as higher yields, a stronger dollar, hawkish Fed bets, and renewed US-Iran tensions weighed on rate-sensitive assets.

European morning trade was modestly calm on Friday, though nerves had yet to fully settle, with Wall Street steadying despite the Nvidia drama while renewed "higher for longer" fears in the US bond market kept traders on edge.
Key headlines
- Wall Street steadies despite Nvidia drama but dip buyers are still walking a tight rope
- US bond market cracks resurface as higher for longer fears return to haunt Wall Street
- Higher real yields and stronger US dollar weigh on gold as Trump puts Iran deal in jeopardy
- Japan prime minister Takaichi fires another verbal warning as USD/JPY flirts with the 160 level
- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
- Germany October wholesale price index +0.4% vs +1.9% m/m prior
- France October inflation accelerates as energy prices surge, keeping ECB rate hike bets alive
- Spain inflation remains stubborn in October, keeping ECB rate hike expectations firmly alive
- Eurozone Q3 GDP unchanged in second estimate as uneven growth clouds the outlook
- Solana remains under pressure amid hawkish Fed bets and renewed US-Iran tensions. What's next?
US futures reacted calmly on Friday despite the ongoing drama around Nvidia — the AI chip heavyweight whose outsized index weight means its swings tend to set the tone for the wider technology trade — with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% and pointing to a light bounce at the open. The expected rebound follows Thursday's late comeback, which trimmed losses before the closing bell. Nvidia shares rose about 1.5% in pre-market trading as technology stocks weighed the prospect of more dip buying — stepping in to buy shares after declines in anticipation of a recovery — against a renewed sell-off in the bond market.
The bond market remains the session's chief worry. Long-end Treasury yields pushed higher again, with the 10-year yield up 3.6 basis points at 5.139% and closing in on 5.14%, while the 30-year yield bordered on 5.48%. Renewed "higher for longer" fears — the concern that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period rather than easing them back down — are haunting Wall Street once more. The 10-year yield matters well beyond the trading floor, since it acts as a benchmark that filters into mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs across the economy. Costlier borrowing is especially damaging for growth stocks at a sensitive time, when technology shares are being called into question over the enormous spending on AI infrastructure and whether it can eventually justify lofty valuations — valuations that lean on earnings projected years into the future and get discounted more heavily as rates rise.
In currencies, the dollar kept a steadier tone as yields held higher, with elevated US rates tending to draw capital toward dollar-denominated assets. USD/JPY flirted with a breach of the 160.00 mark, drawing another verbal warning from Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi — the kind of verbal intervention Japanese officials have long used to signal discomfort with sharp yen weakness — while AUD/USD slipped 0.3% to 0.6789, leaving the US dollar as the day's leader and the Australian dollar as the laggard.
European stocks were little changed, with regional benchmark indices edging a little lower as the stirring gains from earlier in the week ran out of steam. Even so, it has been a good week for European equities, with investors managing to brush aside much of the fallout from US technology shares.
The day's data releases underscored an uneven picture. Germany's October wholesale price index rose 0.4% month-on-month, down sharply from the prior 1.9%, with wholesale prices offering an early read on what firms charge one another before those costs can filter through to consumers. French inflation accelerated in October as energy prices surged, and Spanish inflation remained stubborn, keeping European Central Bank rate hike expectations firmly alive, as persistently sticky price growth leaves the eurozone's rate-setters little room to loosen policy. The second estimate of eurozone third-quarter GDP was left unchanged, with uneven growth clouding the outlook.
In commodities, gold gained 0.4% to $3,891 but stayed locked in a tug of war, with buyers and sellers battling around the 100-week moving average at $3,896 — a long-term trend level many chart watchers treat as a gauge of the metal's broader momentum — to close out the week. Higher real yields and a stronger US dollar weighed on the metal, since gold pays no income and loses relative appeal when safer dollar assets yield more, as Trump put the Iran deal in jeopardy. Oil was similarly tentative, with WTI crude flattish at $88.72. In crypto, Bitcoin fell 3.0% to $69,286, while Solana remained under pressure amid hawkish Fed bets and renewed US-Iran tensions, with digital assets among the most rate-sensitive corners of the risk spectrum.
Looking ahead, attention turns to upcoming US producer price data, which tracks the prices US businesses receive for their goods and services and is often read as an early signal of inflation building upstream. It will be watched for signs it could reignite inflation fears and rile up the bond market before the week closes.