Central Asia Metals' (AIM, TSX: CAML) newly acquired Chibougamau project in Quebec could produce more copper annually than the company's Kounrad mine, helping offset shrinking output at the Kazakhstan operation in the early 2030s, according to BMO Capital Markets.

BMO mining analyst Alexander Pearce said Wednesday in a note that annual steady-state production at Chibougamau could reach about 20,000 tonnes of copper and 32,000 oz. of gold, with first output slated for late 2031 or early 2032. Pearce resumed coverage of the stock at outperform while cutting his share-price target by 25% to 180 pence (C$3.38) from 240 pence.

In his view, Chibougamau could more than replace the copper output Central Asia expects to lose as Kounrad declines. That growth, however, would require substantial investment: BMO assumes $450 million (C$630 million) in pre-production capital, including replacement of the existing mill, with permitting likely to determine when construction can begin.

"While the project is early stage and many unknowns remain, its existing infrastructure and potential resource upside via its hub-and-spoke model are key positives," Pearce wrote.

Central Asia shares rose 2.1% to C$2.41 Thursday morning in Toronto, valuing the company at about C$618 million ($441 million). The stock has ranged between C$2.26 and C$2.59 since it began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange last week.

Three-year build

BMO assumes Chibougamau will require three years of construction to support annual mill throughput of 900,000 tonnes, and an updated preliminary economic assessment is expected in the second half of 2027.

Central Asia acquired the project through its takeover of Cygnus Metals, completed Oct. 27, under which Cygnus shareholders received 0.06 Central Asia shares for each share held.

The Canadian project adds potential replacement production as Kounrad declines. An August reserve update forecast that copper output at the Kazakhstan mine could drop to 9,000 tonnes in 2031 and 6,000 tonnes in 2032, with production continuing through 2034. Central Asia's 2026 target remains 12,000–13,000 tonnes. Copper is a core input for power grids, electric vehicles and renewable-energy infrastructure, and because every mine has a finite life, producers must continually line up replacement projects to sustain output.

Kounrad recovers copper from historical waste dumps in Kazakhstan. London-based Central Asia also operates the Sasa zinc-lead mine in North Macedonia. If Chibougamau reaches production, it would extend the company's operating footprint beyond Kazakhstan and North Macedonia into Canada.

Five deposits

Chibougamau lies about 480 km north of Montreal and covers more than 282 sq. km. Its Copper Rand processing plant last operated in 2008 and has historical capacity of 900,000 tonnes a year. Central Asia says the plant requires refurbishment, though BMO assumes it will be replaced.

The site also includes tailings storage, a hydroelectric power connection and road and rail infrastructure. Five deposits — Corner Bay, Devlin, Cedar Bay, Joe Mann and Golden Eye — sit within about 50 km of the plant and could feed a central mill.

A September 2025 resource estimate put measured and indicated resources at the property at 6.4 million tonnes grading 2.3% copper, 0.8 gram gold per tonne and 7.6 grams silver per tonne, for contained metal of 149,000 tonnes copper, 167,000 oz. gold and about 1.6 million oz. silver.

Inferred resources total 8.5 million tonnes grading 2.1% copper, 1.7 grams gold per tonne and 7.9 grams silver per tonne, containing 182,000 tonnes copper, 454,000 oz. gold and about 2.2 million oz. silver.

No mineral reserves have been established at Chibougamau — under Canadian reporting standards, reserves denote the economically mineable portion of a resource confirmed through feasibility-level studies. Further studies must determine the mine plan, capital requirements and operating costs before BMO's conceptual production case can be tested.