Bitcoin's scheduled-event calendar is full of both genuine catalysts and persistent myths. An analysis published by Bitcoin.com News examined nearly nine years of market data, from January 2018 to October 2026, to separate the two. The study found that U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) events and major economic data releases moved the bitcoin price roughly two to three times as much as normal in the first 30 minutes. These effects mostly last one to three hours before the market calms down, and on a daily timeframe the events have not made bitcoin reliably more volatile. The standout exception was the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in 2022, when inflation and interest rates were the market's main concerns: CPI days that year were 79% more volatile than other weekdays.

The Non-Events

Headlines frequently warn about upcoming bitcoin options expiries, but the data shows that expiry Fridays were no more volatile than other Fridays. Since U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in January 2024, expiry Fridays have actually been about a quarter less volatile than other Fridays. Even right after options settle at 8 a.m. UTC, bitcoin moves about as much as it does on a normal day. The record $28.5 billion Deribit expiry on Dec. 26, 2025, which covered bitcoin and ether combined, moved $BTC just 0.31% in the following 30 minutes.

Decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) had a mild impact in the first 30 minutes, but the effect was not statistically significant. Bank of Japan (BOJ) decisions showed no measurable impact, although the BOJ has no fixed release time.

U.S. tax deadlines follow a similar pattern: they did not make bitcoin more volatile either. However, in years following big gains, bitcoin tended to weaken in the month before the annual tax deadline.

How the Analysis Was Built

Bitcoin.com News compared bitcoin's minute-by-minute and daily price movements around scheduled events with those on ordinary days at the same weekday and time. The analysis covers January 2018 to October 2026 and examines the hour before each event, the first 30 minutes and first hours afterward, the rest of the day, and the following 24 hours.

The Most Volatile Events on Bitcoin's Calendar

Over the past eight years, bitcoin reacted most strongly in the first 30 minutes after speeches by Fed chairs at the Jackson Hole conference, with the price moving about three times as much as normal. Fed press conferences ranked second at 2.6 times normal, followed by jobs reports (2.2 times), Fed rate decision statements (2.0 times), and CPI reports (1.9 times).

Jackson Hole speeches, which may signal changes in the Fed's monetary policy, also produced the highest daily volatility among the events analyzed, at 2.5 times normal. After the first hours, trading returned to about normal for every event, and the 24-hour price change was no larger than usual — the Jackson Hole speeches being the sole exception.

CPI announcements generated distinctly stronger volatility in 2022, when the Fed was pursuing its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign to fight record-high inflation. Back then, the market reacted much more strongly to Fed statements as well — about seven times normal in the first 30 minutes.

Separately, Coin Metrics, analyzing data from January 2025 to September 2026, found that jobs reports moved bitcoin about twice as much as a typical 30-minute window, while core CPI moved it about 1.8 times as much. Coin Metrics also found that Fed decisions stayed "close to baseline" in terms of bitcoin volatility. A longer data set shows that Fed statements affected bitcoin about as much as economic data releases, while the Fed chair's press conference had an even greater impact.

Reading the Volatility Calendar

In practical terms, bitcoin typically moves about 0.2% in a half-hour period. In the first 30 minutes after a Jackson Hole speech, it moves about 0.7%; after a Fed press conference, about 0.5%. Jobs reports, CPI, Fed statements, ECB decisions, and Fed minutes fall between 0.45% and 0.23%. Options expiries, at 0.22%, are in line with a normal half-hour period.

After the first hours, trading returns to normal, and by the next day the bitcoin price is usually no farther from where it started than it would be on an ordinary day. For those looking to catch these short-term moves, the relevant dates can be marked on the calendar in advance.

The Fed Calendar: Decisions, Press Conferences, and Minutes

The Fed holds eight regularly scheduled policy meetings a year and releases a statement at 2 p.m. EDT. However, in October 2026, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said that in 2027 one of the meetings will not be dedicated to rates or policy statements. The chair usually holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are published three weeks later. The date of the Jackson Hole conference has not yet been announced, but it usually takes place in late August.

Data Releases: CPI and Jobs

Over the next 12 months, U.S. CPI and jobs reports are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

The Effects of U.S. Tax Deadlines

Tax deadlines are another set of dates traders watch, with the concern centered on selling pressure in the weeks beforehand: investors may sell $BTC to raise cash for a tax bill on the previous year's gains, or sell at a loss before Dec. 31 to reduce their tax liability.

The data shows that personal and corporate tax deadlines did not make bitcoin more volatile in any statistically reliable way. However, the data suggests that $BTC tends to fall in the month before the April 15 personal tax deadline following a strong year, as bitcoin holders may take profits. In five of the six years following gains of more than 50%, bitcoin usually fell slightly in the 30 days before the annual tax deadline. After the three weaker years, it rose.

What the Findings Mean

The findings are mainly relevant for those who treat bitcoin ($BTC) as an investable asset and trade it over short timeframes, aiming to profit from quick price fluctuations. For longer-horizon holders, unless something truly extraordinary and unexpected happens during one of these scheduled events — triggering substantial liquidations of long or short positions — these relatively small moves are unlikely to matter much if they expect bitcoin to make substantial gains over the long term.

Short-term volatility in the first few minutes is also likely driven by algorithmic trading, as large institutions race to position themselves using automated programs, affecting the market along the way.

In short, the analysis points toward matching the investment calendar to the bitcoin investment thesis. Long-term bitcoin investors with sound risk management have little reason to stress over every scheduled event or "unscheduled surprise" that moves the market. And the next time someone warns about the dangers of expiring options, the data suggests the fear belongs in the myth column.