NewsCryptoBitcoin Tops $65,000 as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Cools Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ahead of CPI Report

Bitcoin Tops $65,000 as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Cools Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ahead of CPI Report

Author: Coincentral·

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin briefly surpassed $65,000 on August 10 and was trading near $64,955, up 3.4% over seven days.
  • The U.S. economy lost 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, and prior estimates for May and June were revised down by 103,000 combined.
  • Futures markets lowered the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 44%, down from 67% a week earlier.
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $854 million in net inflows between August 3 and August 7, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $694 million.
  • Analysts identified the $65,800 level as critical resistance, and the upcoming CPI report on August 12 is expected to influence near-term price action.
Bitcoin Tops $65,000 as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Cools Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ahead of CPI Report

Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 during early trading on Monday, Aug. 10, reaching an intraday high of $65,363 before pulling back slightly. At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $64,955, up 0.3% over 24 hours and 3.4% over the past seven days.

The move followed Friday's U.S. jobs report, which came in weaker than expected. The economy lost 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, while unemployment held near 4.1%. Revisions also removed 103,000 jobs from May and June estimates combined. The softening labor market readings reinforced investor expectations that the Fed may have less room to keep rates restrictive, a shift that has historically benefited risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by easing pressure on liquidity conditions.

That data shifted market expectations. Futures markets put the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase at 44%, down from 67% a week earlier. The Fed held its target rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. Three voting officials had preferred a 25 basis point hike, and the central bank noted that inflation remains above its 2% target.

Analyst Ted Pillows weighed in on the price action, noting that BTC is still holding above its uptrend.

$BTC is still holding above its uptrend. As long as $63,000 is not lost, Bitcoin has a decent chance of pumping from here. pic.twitter.com/zNErJuOghQ
— Ted (@TedPillows) August 9, 2026

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Pick Up

Institutional demand strengthened last week. SoSoValue reported $854 million in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs between Aug. 3 and Aug. 7. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $694 million of that total, continuing a pattern in which the world's largest asset manager has dominated spot Bitcoin ETF flows since the products launched.

Wu Blockchain reported on the broader ETF landscape:

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Saw $854M in Net Inflows Last Week; Ethereum ETFs Took In $245M. From August 3 to 7 (ET), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $854 million in net inflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw $245 million, marking five consecutive weeks of inflows. Solana, XRP and HYPE spot ETFs… pic.twitter.com/64xtJ53EcS
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 10, 2026

Farside's data shows a slightly different figure of approximately $865.3 million across the same five sessions. The difference reflects dataset methodology rather than conflicting results. The five-week inflow streak underscores sustained appetite from regulated investment vehicles, which have become a primary conduit for institutional Bitcoin exposure since their approval by U.S. regulators.

Despite the strong ETF flows, Bitcoin remained rangebound near $64,200 for much of last week before pushing higher on Friday.

Technical Levels to Watch

The Relative Strength Index sat at 55.07, above its moving average of 50.44, pointing to moderate bullish momentum. The Awesome Oscillator was positive at 664.19, supporting that picture without signaling a major breakout.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe called $65,800 the "critical level" in an Aug. 9 post, citing bullish divergence in RSI and MACD readings.

$BTC is ready for a breakout to at least $73,700. To me, there's one critical level to break. That's the weekly level at $65,800. When I'm looking at the charts, I don't think we'll test lower as the arguments are simply not there. The MACD of multiple #Altcoins look… pic.twitter.com/uZ9FlMjz4B
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 9, 2026

The $65,000 to $66,000 range has repeatedly acted as resistance. Bitcoin traded near $62,500 at the start of last week before recovering to current levels.

Across the broader market, Solana led gains among major assets, up nearly 5% over seven days. XRP was the only major in the red, down 4% on the week.

CPI Report Ahead

Wednesday's CPI report, scheduled for release on Aug. 12, remains the next scheduled market catalyst. Economists expect July headline inflation to ease to 3.4% annually, with core inflation projected to slow to 2.5%. The figures carry particular weight this cycle: with rate-hike odds already repriced lower after the jobs data, a softer-than-expected print could further diminish the case for additional tightening, while a hot reading would test the nascent bullish setup across digital assets.