Bitcoin Eyes $68,000 as Bulls Challenge $65,000 Resistance

Bitcoin neared the $65,000 level on August 6 as receding tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints, through which roughly a fifth of global petroleum consumption flows daily — and strengthening technical indicators fueled a recovery from the low-$62,000 range.

Price Action and Recovery

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin ($BTC) traded near $64,615 at the time of writing, having touched an intraday high of $64,999. The advance extended Bitcoin's rebound from roughly $62,300 on August 3, bringing the cumulative gain to approximately 4%.

The recovery gathered momentum after reports emerged that Iran and Oman had made progress on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that the two nations reached an understanding on the route's coordinates, though several details remained under negotiation. The development did not guarantee a permanent reopening of the strategic waterway.

Brent crude stayed below $80 as market participants weighed whether the diplomatic progress could mitigate risks to global energy supplies. Lower oil prices tend to benefit cryptocurrencies and other risk assets by reducing inflationary pressures, though any collapse in negotiations could quickly reverse that dynamic.

Bitcoin has nonetheless trailed the broader U.S. equity rally. The S&P 500 rose more than 3% during the first days of August, while Bitcoin gained approximately 2% over the same window. Bitcoin's underperformance relative to equities during this window marks a departure from the tighter correlation observed during earlier 2024 risk-on rallies, when the cryptocurrency frequently moved in lockstep with tech-heavy indices. Asset-specific headwinds, including the COLDCARD wallet exploit and uncertainty surrounding corporate treasury sales, have constrained the cryptocurrency's rebound.

Technical Indicators Signal Potential for Further Gains

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is trading above the Bollinger Band basis line at $64,020. The upper band sits at $65,221, placing the $65,000–$65,220 zone as the primary hurdle for buyers.

The Awesome Oscillator has advanced to 1,071 and is displaying expanding green bars, indicating that bullish momentum is building despite Bitcoin's modest pullback from its intraday peak.

A 4-hour close above $65,220 could validate a Bollinger Band breakout. Such a move would expose previous swing resistance near $66,000 before Bitcoin tests the $67,000–$68,000 range.

Conversely, a rejection could drag the price back toward the middle band at $64,020. The lower band around $62,819 marks a broader invalidation zone for the short-term uptrend.

The daily chart offers a more measured outlook. Bitcoin has retaken the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $63,715, measured from the February low of $57,815 to the May high of $82,816.

The daily RSI has climbed to 52.96 and remains above its signal average of 49.46, supporting a case for mild bullish momentum without pushing Bitcoin into overbought conditions.

The MACD presents a less definitive signal. The MACD line is positioned at 25.31, below the signal line at 29.83, with the histogram slightly negative at minus 4.51. The narrowing gap suggests bearish momentum is weakening, though a confirmed bullish crossover has yet to materialize.

Liquidation Heatmap Highlights $65,500 as a Key Level

CoinGlass' 3-day liquidation heatmap reveals a dense cluster of leveraged positions just above Bitcoin's current price. Liquidity is concentrated between approximately $65,000 and $65,500, with additional pockets extending toward $66,000.

A push through this region could trigger liquidations of short positions and accelerate a breakout. This potential short squeeze may explain why traders are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can sweep above $65,000 before committing to the recovery thesis.

The heatmap also identifies significant downside liquidity around $63,700–$63,900 and $63,000–$63,200. These zones could draw price if buyers fail to defend $64,000.

The $63,715 Fibonacci level closely aligns with the first downside liquidation cluster. A loss of that level would expose $63,000, followed by the 4-hour lower Bollinger Band near $62,819. Below that, attention would shift to the August 3 recovery zone and the daily range floor around $60,000. A drop beneath $60,000 would break the current pattern of higher short-term lows.

Analysts Point to $68,000 as the Breakout Target

Analyst Ted Pillows identified $65,000 as Bitcoin's most immediate resistance, suggesting that reclaiming it could unlock the next leg higher.

$BTC is right at its $65,000 resistance zone. Reclaim this, and Bitcoin could rally towards $68,000 next.

His analysis places additional resistance near $67,400 and $69,700, which broadly corresponds with the daily Fibonacci resistance at $67,365.

Trader Lennaert Snyder also flagged $65,000 as the critical test, noting that a 4-hour close above $64,000 catalyzed the latest advance. He cautioned, however, that price is elevated within its recent range and could sweep liquidity above $65,000 or the prior weekly high near $65,400 before a clearer directional move emerges.

$BTC is testing the 65K high. As mentioned earlier this week, we see how important the 64K level is. One 4H close above that momentum line triggered a move to the upside. My long entry at 63K was too defensive and Bitcoin pumped without me, part of the game. As of now, the… pic.twitter.com/opL9I3ocol
— Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder) August 6, 2026

Taken together, the charts place Bitcoin at a pivotal juncture. Holding above $63,715 would preserve the recovery, while a close above $65,220 would bolster the case for a move toward $67,365 and $68,000. Failure to overcome resistance would refocus attention on the liquidity pools near $63,700 and $63,000.

U.S. Market Context Serves as a Key Catalyst

For U.S. investors, Bitcoin's trajectory may hinge in part on Wall Street's risk appetite and forthcoming signals from the Federal Reserve. U.S. equity futures were mixed on August 6, as weakness in semiconductor shares offset gains among several major technology companies.

Continued progress on the Hormuz negotiations could alleviate energy-driven inflation risks and support risk assets. Conversely, renewed geopolitical friction, rising oil prices, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance would increase the likelihood of another Bitcoin rejection near the $65,000 level.